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polygotdomain | 2 years ago
It's not hard at all. Humans are not perfectly rational beings. It's not purely about odds, it's about emotions and psychology. In a version where there's no previous selection and it's 50:50, than I pick one and live with it. In the canonical example, the previous selection means that the contestant has already staked their claim, and changing it to the loosing door would have a different emotional response than a simple 50:50 shot with no previous selection. There's a reason why Roulette shows you the last X spins and whether they're odd/even, red/black... because humans make the assumption that the last disconnected data point somehow impacts the current one.
You're also glossing over the fact that there was a 1:3 chance you picked the right door to begin with, and 2:3 chance the "other" door was right. The last round isn't 50:50, as you so claim, because there was prior information
This is the same reason why the 1000 door example helps explain things; because the math is fundamentally the same, yet significantly more imbalanced. We can also think about how we'd feel about our selection in the 1000 door version, which is likely significantly less confidence, and therefore more likelihood of switching. Whether it's 3 doors, or 1000, the math still say switching is optimal, and our psychology and emotions deal with the choice of switching different in each case.
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