[okhuman]

AI is going to continue to have incremental progress, particularly now in hardware gains. No one can even define what AGI is or what it will look like, let alone be something that OpenAI would own? Features progress is too incremental to suddenly pop out with "AGI". Fighting about it seems a distraction.

[root_axis]

There's also no reason to believe that incremental progress in transformer models will eventually lead to "AGI".

[snapcaster]

Yes, but I think everyone would agree that the chance isn't 0%

[xiphias2]

Progress is definitely not inremental, it's exponential.

The same performance (training an LLM with a given perplexity) can be achieved 5x cheaper next year while the amount of money deep learning infrastructure gets increases exponentially right now.

If this method is able to get to AGI (which I believe but many people are debating), human intelligence will just be mostly ,,skipped'', and won't be a clear point.

[CatWChainsaw]

In nature, exponential curves reveal themselves to be sigmoidal on a long enough time scale. Since you're on HN you probably have a mathematical bent, and you should know that.

[blibble]

how long do you think the "exponential" (that looks very linear to me) growth in funding can continue?

until it's more than US GDP? world GDP? universe GDP?

either way you're close to the point it will have to go logistic