[ManitobaForMe]

It is meaningless to put any number on an event like this. Unless you can find the very large number of universes where that same situation arises, you can never know if you were right.

Maybe a prediction market-based approach can weigh the beliefs of people about the event, but that doesn't mean it's a real probability.

Probability theory has given people the mistaken belief that everything is like a card or dice game. It isn't.

[Vecr]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_book

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Von_Neumann%E2%80%93Morgenster...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference

Maybe everything's not a card game, but you really don't want to find yourself in a situation that isn't.