[dandy23]

The problem with economic models is that they remove almost all parameters except a few. But the removed parameters account for like 90% of the outcome.

That's the only way you can create models of something as complex as society. It's way more complex and chaotic than weather and still economists think they can predict months and years into the future.

[RandomLensman]

For smaller economies modelling some months into the future is actually pretty decently possible. Of course, there could always be big events throwing everything in a new state.

There are also very very granular models.

[flakeoil]

How do you know?

Do you seriously mean that smaller economies can be modelled several months into the future with accuracy and be correct more than 50% of the time?