[spqrr]

Historically, a recession follows shortly AFTER the fed starts cutting rates. See also: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y/ The grey areas are recessions.

[wakawaka28]

They often cut rates when a recession is in sight, and raise them when they think the market will handle it. I don't think cutting rates directly causes recessions. Interest rates are still too low but they are about to be cut to save the banks which invested in low interest bonds, presumably.

[fauigerzigerk]

>See also: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y/ The grey areas are recessions

This chart shows (part of) the yield curve, not the Fed funds rate.

Did you mean to show this?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

[spqrr]

I guess that would have been more correct, yes. It shows the same pattern in any case.