[jessep]

Yeah, it's a good point, but I think that our intuitions are different on this one. I don't have a horse in this race, but my assumption is that the next OpenAI release will be a massive leap, that makes GPT 4/Claude 3 Opus look like toys. Perhaps you're right though, and Anthropic's curves with bend upward even more quickly, so that they get to that they'll start catching up more quickly, until eventually be they're ahead.

[HarHarVeryFunny]

Honestly who knows, but outside of Q-star rumors there's no indication that either company is doing anything much different from the other one, so I'd not expect any long-lasting difference in capability to open up. Maybe it will, though!

FWIW, Sam Altman has fairly recently said that the jump from GPT-4 to GPT-5 will be similar to that from GPT-3 to GPT-4, and also (recent Lex Fridman interview) that their goal is explicitly NOT to have releases that are shocking - but rather they want to have ones of incremental capability to give society time to adapt. Could be misdirection - who knows.

Amodei for his part has said that what Anthropic will release in 2024 will be a "sharper, more refined" (or words to that effect) version of what they have now, and not a "reality bender" (which he seemed to be implying maybe is coming, but not for a year or two).