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juitpykyk | 1 year ago

I've once got 000000. If you do the math it takes about 1 year to cycle through all million of them, assuming no duplicates.

Which makes me wonder, what's the expected repeated distribution?

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kadoban|1 year ago

This is the birthday paradox. The rough approximation is you need sqrt(n) values to get to a 50% chance of having a duplicate. Sqrt of a million is a thousand, and if they're every 30 seconds, that's ~8 hours or so. So you probably get a duplicate or 2 every day.

There's _much_ better approximations than the sqrt one, but I don't know them and the actual math is too hard.

jakey_bakey|1 year ago

Correct, the article actually mentions the birthday problem somewhere. Even with 10k codes (2 days) you get dozens of duplicates, so I'd say it's potentially even more common.

Sextuples are 1 in 100,000, so something like every 50 days (per account).