That's just $10b a year for 15 years, fairly conservative I'd say.
I expect a GPT-5 training cluster to cost $10b (Say 100k blackwell chips + associated infrastructure), and a GPT-6 capable cluster to cost $100b.
It sounds like a lot, but its just a typical mega-infrastructure funding. The Californian high speed rail is also around $100b for example, and Microsoft has $90b in cash reserves.
The gulf states are also dogpiling in AI, because they finally see a true viable alternative to oil: renting out GPU clusters. Just swapping to renewables is not enough, as their economies is predicated on having a huge, simple, defendable profit source that is exportable. Now they can redeploy the spare oil money to a use case, that has predictable demand, extremely capital intensive, and far more productive than building new cities in the desert.
The world in the end built $trillions in value of power stations and roads. I expect the same for data centers, having entire farms being replaced by humming GPU racks. But that will take many decades.
I really thought you were going into quite a tangent until the last paragraph. It really proves your point. Arguably, we’ve already seen trillions in value generated from data centers.
I still question GPT-6 having a 100b data center. I expect GPT-6 to be out before 2026, since I expect them to regularly release now models, as a matter of marketing. Neither the cash nor hardware purchasing capacity will exist by then.
I don’t give the gulf states that much credit either. I think they’re just spraying money at every opportunity. They were pretty into crypto before too. They’ve been around the valley with outsized checks forever. If I had endless money with an expiration date I’d also invest in everything. What would be interesting is to see them really commit and try to on-shore fabs and silicon engineering. That’s the ultimate move to gain geopolitical protection when oil interest stops.
>That's just $10b a year for 15 years, fairly conservative I'd say.
Reposting what I wrote over the years
[1] ( 11 months ago ) It was only about a year or so AWS was expanding as fast as they could. Bringing up new Datacenter per week. Getting Graviton 2 Wafer from TSMC whenever extra capacity are available on top of their orders. And they dont see any end of expansion in sight. Now it seems all the demand are suddenly gone.
[2] ( ~ 2 years ago )
>Amazon said Thursday that revenue growth in its cloud-computing unit slowed in the third quarter to 27.5%.
27.5%. It is lower that their previous 33% over the past few years, but at the current size of AWS growing 27.5% is still ridiculously good. To put this in perspective, if AWS continues to grow at 33% in 2022 and 2023. Then the whole 2023 33% growth alone, would equal to the size of the entire AWS in 2018. It is not the first time Amazon said they are limited by how fast they are building out Datacenter and getting hardware resources ready.
It will be interesting to see further details given out in AWS re:Invent 2022. Especially on Graviton roadmap.
It is interesting we have a huge increase in compute density in the past 2 years and upcoming 3-5 years. Where a single socket CPU could have 160 Core 320 Thread. and more. Retrofitting older DC with these type of density will simply increase AWS total compute by 2-3x minimum. At the scale of current AWS. Continue to spend money building DC is pretty impressive in my book.
I can't wait for the whole Nvidia and data center stack to be disrupted by a completely new kind of computing device specifically for deep learning: analog and or photonic integrators. (probably associated with an adaptation of architecture like Hintons forward forward networks). Time is right and the incentives are in the trillions. hook me up if you share the vision or know a guy.
[+] [-] anonylizard|1 year ago|reply
I expect a GPT-5 training cluster to cost $10b (Say 100k blackwell chips + associated infrastructure), and a GPT-6 capable cluster to cost $100b.
It sounds like a lot, but its just a typical mega-infrastructure funding. The Californian high speed rail is also around $100b for example, and Microsoft has $90b in cash reserves.
The gulf states are also dogpiling in AI, because they finally see a true viable alternative to oil: renting out GPU clusters. Just swapping to renewables is not enough, as their economies is predicated on having a huge, simple, defendable profit source that is exportable. Now they can redeploy the spare oil money to a use case, that has predictable demand, extremely capital intensive, and far more productive than building new cities in the desert.
The world in the end built $trillions in value of power stations and roads. I expect the same for data centers, having entire farms being replaced by humming GPU racks. But that will take many decades.
[+] [-] vineyardmike|1 year ago|reply
I still question GPT-6 having a 100b data center. I expect GPT-6 to be out before 2026, since I expect them to regularly release now models, as a matter of marketing. Neither the cash nor hardware purchasing capacity will exist by then.
I don’t give the gulf states that much credit either. I think they’re just spraying money at every opportunity. They were pretty into crypto before too. They’ve been around the valley with outsized checks forever. If I had endless money with an expiration date I’d also invest in everything. What would be interesting is to see them really commit and try to on-shore fabs and silicon engineering. That’s the ultimate move to gain geopolitical protection when oil interest stops.
[+] [-] hn_throwaway_99|1 year ago|reply
You just completely made up those numbers.
[+] [-] ksec|1 year ago|reply
Reposting what I wrote over the years
[1] ( 11 months ago ) It was only about a year or so AWS was expanding as fast as they could. Bringing up new Datacenter per week. Getting Graviton 2 Wafer from TSMC whenever extra capacity are available on top of their orders. And they dont see any end of expansion in sight. Now it seems all the demand are suddenly gone.
[2] ( ~ 2 years ago )
>Amazon said Thursday that revenue growth in its cloud-computing unit slowed in the third quarter to 27.5%.
27.5%. It is lower that their previous 33% over the past few years, but at the current size of AWS growing 27.5% is still ridiculously good. To put this in perspective, if AWS continues to grow at 33% in 2022 and 2023. Then the whole 2023 33% growth alone, would equal to the size of the entire AWS in 2018. It is not the first time Amazon said they are limited by how fast they are building out Datacenter and getting hardware resources ready.
It will be interesting to see further details given out in AWS re:Invent 2022. Especially on Graviton roadmap.
It is interesting we have a huge increase in compute density in the past 2 years and upcoming 3-5 years. Where a single socket CPU could have 160 Core 320 Thread. and more. Retrofitting older DC with these type of density will simply increase AWS total compute by 2-3x minimum. At the scale of current AWS. Continue to spend money building DC is pretty impressive in my book.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35753169
[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33384628
[+] [-] unknown|1 year ago|reply
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[+] [-] lyime|1 year ago|reply
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[+] [-] singularity2001|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] andrewstuart|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] grogenaut|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] wenc|1 year ago|reply