[dandaka]

AI technology is advancing at an exponential rate currently. The inquiry remains whether there's a limit to these technologies' potential.

[hatthew]

And as your error rate decreases, it gets exponentially more difficult to decrease it further. My guesstimate is that even ignoring the hardware issue, it would be at least a decade until we get AI capable of reaching human-level performance in household object manipulation (across a big enough class of household objects to be significantly useful in multiple tasks per day).