And also encapsulates a problem embedded in the way the author expresses the differentiation.
Luck is not just about recognizing opportunities when they arise, its also about being in a position to act on those opportunities.
I've read several times that professional poker players are very good at doing math in their head to evaluate how good a bet actually is. Basically, you take the apparent cost of an operation (maybe the raise from a previous player), multiply it by the odds of losing, then decide if that value is above or below what you can "afford" to lose. So if the fee to stay in is $5,000, and the odds of losing the next hand are 3 in 5, then the gambler has to decide "can I afford to lose $3,000 right now?". If the answer is yes, then bet. If not, then fold. The hard part is ignoring the apparent sunk cost.
So if I'm chronically unlucky, either I'm garbage at recognizing opportunities, or when I do recognize opportunities, I'm not in a position to act on them. It can certainly be the case that the former contributes to the latter. But it can also be the case that you just never get an opportunity to get in the game, so to speak, in the first place. Everybody needs that one big break to get in the game. Not everybody gets that break.
petsfed|1 year ago
Luck is not just about recognizing opportunities when they arise, its also about being in a position to act on those opportunities.
I've read several times that professional poker players are very good at doing math in their head to evaluate how good a bet actually is. Basically, you take the apparent cost of an operation (maybe the raise from a previous player), multiply it by the odds of losing, then decide if that value is above or below what you can "afford" to lose. So if the fee to stay in is $5,000, and the odds of losing the next hand are 3 in 5, then the gambler has to decide "can I afford to lose $3,000 right now?". If the answer is yes, then bet. If not, then fold. The hard part is ignoring the apparent sunk cost.
So if I'm chronically unlucky, either I'm garbage at recognizing opportunities, or when I do recognize opportunities, I'm not in a position to act on them. It can certainly be the case that the former contributes to the latter. But it can also be the case that you just never get an opportunity to get in the game, so to speak, in the first place. Everybody needs that one big break to get in the game. Not everybody gets that break.