Seems like a signal that they see the trade consequences of invading Taiwan, and they're going to put things in motion such that they'll be prepared to be able to handle them.
It seems like an obvious response to sanctions and denying access to lithography equipment. Let's return back to the reality where China isn't presently invading Taiwan, but is a target of containment attempts.
That’s a hilarious directive since their homegrown CPU is 900 MHz. They are on something like a 30nm die. There is just no way they can transition to those chips in modern devices. This sounds like exactly the sort of order that would come from Xi. He’s living in his information bubble and is excited to go to war.
China is old [1] and broke [2]. It won't be able to afford to attack Taiwan - for reference, 1930s Japan and Germany had way more young people. Japan was also rich from its empire, while Germany transitioned away from gold standard to afford its wars. 2022 Russia thought the war would end in 3 days.
Also, as we see from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, drones and missiles are effective at taking out the world's second largest navy. Taiwan has very accurate and effective homegrown missiles [3]. China would need to amass a ton of ships which would be easily detected, staff them with only sons from families, and try to move them across a 100 mile straits while under the barrage of US/Japan/Taiwan missiles and drones.
Lastly, China is quickly transitioning to state run economy much like Soviet Union [3], which means innovations and growth will be gone forever, especially in tech industries.
There's no way they invade Taiwan in a controlled manner, it's too easy to sink a navy over that distance. Sure they could do a long range bombardment but then there's nothing left to take.
The cheap tech (the cool stuff at least) is massively subsidized by the CCP which is attempting to enter the market. Normal strategy but it will not and can not last.
It seems that AMD and Intel are continuing to lose market share between China restrictions and cloud providers designing their own silicon. At some point, you will have a Boeing/Mc Donald Douglas situation where the US government will force AMD to acquire Intel so that both entities can survive.
You are right, banning foreign equipment in your telecoms are the sign of authoritarian regimes.
2020: Telecoms providers must stop installing Huawei equipment in the UK's 5G mobile network from September, the government has said. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55124236
I don't have access behind the paywall. But from the title, if it is only telecom carriers devices, basically RISC-V and ARM chips.
Telecom giants like Huawei and ZTE use their own network processor on data plane for a long time, replacing control plane CPU (usually x86 or ARM) is not a big task. Smaller companies who relies on Broadcom solution may have a tough time, but 3 years to find a replacement and finish adaptation is not that hard too.
You're mistaken. Huawei's Kirin Silicon was ahead of what the likes of Qualcomm offered, right before they were banned from TSMC by the US.
It was a damn shame too, right when Qualcomm was getting some needed competition, the US ban happened. Convenient for Qualcomm but a huge blow to consumers.
RockChip's ARM SoC's are quite fast actually. I run a couple of OrangePi 5Bs which work quite nicely.
Mind you these are 4+4 bigLITTLE systems with 35 degrees C idle without any tuning and passive cooling. Huawei is also quite improved on hardware reliability and design department in the last years, so there's no need for concern for them.
They still need a Infiniband equivalent network layer for HPC, though.
They are pouring lots of effort into their own EUV lithography tools. Given the complexity of the ASML approach, I bet China will have the best (cheapest at leading nodes) litho tools on earth in 15 years. They'll also have world class designs based on RISC-V. They are playing a long game.
It makes sense if you assume they are planning to invade Taiwan by about 2027 like some foreign policy and military people are saying. That's supposed to be the year at which they're at maximum relative military strength after which they'll decline relative to the US.
As does their massive investments in renewables and nuclear, they need to get off imported natural gas if they're going to invade since natural gas imports from middle east will be blockaded.
What use are chip factories in the United States when you cannot sell them to the largest market of chips that only will become even more larger as Chinese middle class and their consumption grows?
Currently chips for civilian and military applications often come out of Taiwan.
The strategic and political situation of Taiwan is -fluid. Losing these fabs would be a heavy blow to the west both economically and more importantly qua military defense.
Thus extra fabs in other (western) countries are pro-indicated for this reason alone. It's insurance.
The theory is that the Chinese middle class has already peaked given the population decline, economic woes, and shrinking growth of exports to the West.
As but one signal, the recent dumping of Chinese EVs has less to do with industrial superiority and more to do with their own shrinking domestic demand. The Chinese market is saturated and consumer demand has slowed.
India's growth is predicted to top China's before 2030, and manufacturing is moving on to cheaper cost of labor economies. Mexico, India, Vietnam. Africa won't be far behind.
There are plenty of other markets for American tech.
[+] [-] Tiktaalik|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] foverzar|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] 0x00_NULL|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] amou234|1 year ago|reply
Also, as we see from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, drones and missiles are effective at taking out the world's second largest navy. Taiwan has very accurate and effective homegrown missiles [3]. China would need to amass a ton of ships which would be easily detected, staff them with only sons from families, and try to move them across a 100 mile straits while under the barrage of US/Japan/Taiwan missiles and drones.
Lastly, China is quickly transitioning to state run economy much like Soviet Union [3], which means innovations and growth will be gone forever, especially in tech industries.
[1] https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd....
[2] https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/global/frugal... https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/325...
[3] https://www.eurasiantimes.com/taiwan-smashes-chinese-warship...
[4] https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-s-favored-sta...
[+] [-] lowenergyphoton|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] qwerty456127|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] Havoc|1 year ago|reply
I know people freak out about hardware backdoors but some of the cheap tech coming out of China sure is cool
[+] [-] TechSquidTV|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] makeitdouble|1 year ago|reply
Looking at Huawei or Xiaomi goods, the quality is there and the prices are also getting noticeably higher accordingly.
[+] [-] a_random_canuck|1 year ago|reply
People need to understand just how insidious the communist party’s methods are.
[+] [-] gorjusborg|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] osnium123|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] dehrmann|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] miguelazo|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] roamerz|1 year ago|reply
Or maybe something more strategic as they ramp up hostilities With Taiwan.
[+] [-] lupusreal|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] cynicalsecurity|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] blitzar|1 year ago|reply
2020: Telecoms providers must stop installing Huawei equipment in the UK's 5G mobile network from September, the government has said. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55124236
[+] [-] methuselah_in|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] Avtomatk|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] hashtag-til|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] rwmj|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] sinxccc|1 year ago|reply
Telecom giants like Huawei and ZTE use their own network processor on data plane for a long time, replacing control plane CPU (usually x86 or ARM) is not a big task. Smaller companies who relies on Broadcom solution may have a tough time, but 3 years to find a replacement and finish adaptation is not that hard too.
[+] [-] baq|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] 2OEH8eoCRo0|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] Rinzler89|1 year ago|reply
It was a damn shame too, right when Qualcomm was getting some needed competition, the US ban happened. Convenient for Qualcomm but a huge blow to consumers.
[+] [-] bayindirh|1 year ago|reply
Mind you these are 4+4 bigLITTLE systems with 35 degrees C idle without any tuning and passive cooling. Huawei is also quite improved on hardware reliability and design department in the last years, so there's no need for concern for them.
They still need a Infiniband equivalent network layer for HPC, though.
[+] [-] phkahler|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] swed420|1 year ago|reply
https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2024/04/10/chinas-unf...
[+] [-] hackerlight|1 year ago|reply
As does their massive investments in renewables and nuclear, they need to get off imported natural gas if they're going to invade since natural gas imports from middle east will be blockaded.
[+] [-] fooker|1 year ago|reply
Long term though, this enables them to flood the world with previous-gen chips at 1/4th the price.
Oh, and invade Taiwan.
[+] [-] shortsunblack|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] Kim_Bruning|1 year ago|reply
Currently chips for civilian and military applications often come out of Taiwan.
The strategic and political situation of Taiwan is -fluid. Losing these fabs would be a heavy blow to the west both economically and more importantly qua military defense.
Thus extra fabs in other (western) countries are pro-indicated for this reason alone. It's insurance.
[+] [-] algem|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] ravenstine|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] throwv666|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] huytersd|1 year ago|reply
[+] [-] echelon|1 year ago|reply
As but one signal, the recent dumping of Chinese EVs has less to do with industrial superiority and more to do with their own shrinking domestic demand. The Chinese market is saturated and consumer demand has slowed.
India's growth is predicted to top China's before 2030, and manufacturing is moving on to cheaper cost of labor economies. Mexico, India, Vietnam. Africa won't be far behind.
There are plenty of other markets for American tech.