[dangond]

What makes you say teetering on the edge of world war? Is there some recent news I've missed?

[mikercampbell]

A lot of historians are drawing parallels between recent events and the events leading up to WW1. I’m not an expert, but it isn’t absurd to say that it could happen.

[nprateem]

That's like investors trying to predict a crash. You can only ever make sense of things retrospectively.

[throw1234651234]

Russia supported by Iran vs Ukraine supported by every major Western Power.

China vs Taiwan standoff. China recently built a Taipei city center mock up in the desert. Taiwan controls 90%+ of global microchip production.

Recent Armenia vs Azerbaijan (supported by Turkey) war. More tension on border.

Israel levelled Gaza and killed 30,000 Palestinian civilians, and is striking Lebanon and Syria. Iran posturing back.

Posturing in Africa by Russia, France, and China.

North Korea being noisy as usual.

This is literally just the tip of the iceberg.

[15155]

TSMC controls 60% of global semiconductor production, not "90%+." If your argument is: "well, they control the advanced nodes!!" - if Taiwan is attacked, the things you're using these advanced chips for will no longer be relevant.

Missiles and radar powered by Intel/Altera chips will do the job just fine until more domestic fab capacity can be spun up. Most defense products are running on processes from two decades or more ago and are already legally forced to consider adversarial supply chain issues.

[dangond]

> Recent Armenia vs Azerbaijan (supported by Turkey) war. More tension on border.

I completely missed the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict, but from what I can tell, tensions there don't seem likely to pull many other countries into it. Curious if you have thoughts on that.

> Posturing in Africa by Russia, France, and China.

Can you explain why this would lead to a potential world war? Most of what I can find about this is foreign countries vying for economic influence, which seems unlikely to burst into conflict, especially one that would become a world war.

[BirAdam]

To support this, all of these proxy wars have covert units by the major nuclear powers conducting efforts directly against the other side. If these are ever exposed directly, political pressures will likely escalate the war. The moment one side starts to lose decidedly, nuclear war will likely occur.

[danielbln]

I also don't know what a world war looks like in the nuclear age. Proxy wars are bad enough, to be sure, but a world war seems difficult when many nations can glass the planet.

[naravara]

We were closer to nuclear war in the 1960s and 1970s than we are today. Sure we don’t have it as good as they did in the ‘90s and 2000s but you wouldn’t know it from the depression and anxiety stats over time, which suggests that the geopolitical situation isn’t the main driver here.

[orbisvicis]

We don't have enough firepower to glass the planet, and nuclear winter itself may be exaggerated:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter#Criticism_and...

Just like magic... if enough people stop believing in nuclear winter, then it becomes a nuclear free for all.

[lgeorget]

Among other things, perhaps the recent bombing of the Iranian section of a consulate in Damas, Syria by Israel, to which Iran responded by war threats.

[dangond]

I did in fact miss this, thanks. I'm not as convinced by other commenters' references to Putin's nuclear threats, but the Middle East erupting into a broader conflict with the US joining in seems at least somewhat plausible to me. Another comment mentioned the potential of the US entering a war in defense of Taiwan, which also seems quite plausible to me given China really wants Taiwan back and Taiwan is much more critical to the US than, say, Ukraine.

[yetihehe]

Several nuclear threats from Russia every month perhaps?

[N19PEDL2]

They have made so many that it is hard to take them seriously now.

[aurareturn]

It’s the constant China fear mongering and 24/7 hour coverage of wars like Ukraine, Israel.

Fear gets clicks and views.

[reducesuffering]

There is a more than likely chance that China will invade Taiwan by 2030 and US will possibly intervene to stop that slaughter. Is that fear mongering?