[superboum]

First, there is no proof that "LFP grid scale batteries" last longer than regular batteries today as your question may imply.

It seems the first "grid scale batteries" were derived from EV batteries, and are planned for 1 or 2 decades[1].

Basically, we are discussing battery ageing here, which is a complex problem[2].

According to the different studies on the topic I found, mentioning specifically "large-scale" installation like the ones discussed here, the answer is definitely and deceptively the same: between 10 and 20 years[3][5]. More precisely.

From [3]:

> To address the global effort to decrease carbon emissions, many consumers, corporations, and energy providers are adopting the use of electric vehicles and stationary energy storage systems paired with renewable electricity generation. These systems often utilize large-format lithium-ion batteries [...]. Real-world battery lifetime is evaluated by simulating residential energy storage and commercial frequency containment reserve systems in several U.S. climate regions. Predicted lifetime across cell types varies from 7 years to 20+ years, though all cells are predicted to have at least 10 year life in certain conditions.

From [5]:

> In the 2020 report, calendar life for both LFP and NMC Li-ion systems was stated as 10 years. The 2022 report takes additional information from long-term laboratory work (Saft, 2021) and product data into account (Baxter, 2021b) to establish new calendar lives of 16 years for LFP and 13 years for NMC. The calendar life is unchanged for 2030.

I also claim that battery are not renewable. One might argue that, if we can recycle batteries like we recycle regular glass, it could be considered as renewable. However, today there are 2 industrialized processes that are not satisfying (pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical processing) which "require high energy, and/or complex wet-chemistry steps"[4]. Some explored processes called "direct recycling"[4], which also has severe drawbacks but at least is more promising.

Which makes me think: we are, at least, making huge bets on the future here, as we risk 1) having huge amount of aged batteries in 1 or 2 decades, 2) no more mineral resources to extract.

[1]: https://www.quora.com/How-long-do-grid-storage-batteries-las...

[2]: https://cea.hal.science/cea-01791260/document

[3]: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S23521...

[4]: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352152X2...

[5]: https://www.pnnl.gov/sites/default/files/media/file/ESGC%20C...

[LUmBULtERA]

Thanks! It seems that after your own research that your statement of "at most 10 years for batteries" should really be "at most 20(+?) years"? To be conservative, perhaps 16 years, but still, that's a 60% delta. Also, interesting that in [5], it says estimated LFP battery life went from 10 years in a 2020 analysis to 16 years in the 2022 report.