[indoclay]

US imports from China is ~2% of US GDP and largely in electronics [0], which are actively being targeted for sanctions. It will be painful but not catastrophic for the US to "de-risk".

China has to import both energy and food to sustain it's economy and population[1, 2]. There is very little domestic consumption to absorb their own production capacity and western countries are actively blocking their markets, like the EV situation in Europe or electronics with the US.

They have a very bleak demographic picture with a massively aging population along with some of the lowest fertility rates in the world[3]. It is odd to think of China as running out of people[4], but there will be two elder dependents for every working age person very soon.

There is an expectation of a full on collapse coming and local governments there are already $100TN+ in debt collectively[5]. If there was a pivot possible, would anyone provide that capital with what is happening with the Evergrande liquidation where foreign capital is the first to get wiped out?

Any company that hasn't pivoted to India or some other SEA country for manufacturing will simply be left behind.

[0] https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualized-ranking-the-good...

[1] https://www.cfr.org/article/china-increasingly-relies-import...

[2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61843

[3] https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/china-demographic...

[4] https://jonathanrileywriter.medium.com/chinese-demographic-d...

[5] https://www.wsj.com/world/china/chinas-colossal-hidden-debt-...