[exclusiv]

Not alarmist at all. The can was kicked in 08. We are in a debt spiral. Government spending is a component of GDP, % of GDP is NOT the context. We are insolvent. 210+ trillion in unfunded liabilities! And about 70% of spending is mandatory.

The USD as world reserve currency is the biggest sword the US has.

At current rates or higher we just piss off every country as they trade in eurodollars. They have started the process and will move off USD unless we get back to a favorable rate for their debt loads.

With our debt load, it's either lower rates and continue to print and inflation (traditional and/or more asset bubbles). Or elevate rates and boost our interest expense and suppress the economy while fighting inflation until entities quit buying our debt and we lose significant power. And then, we still need our money printer and more inflation occurs.

As for me, I'm going with keeping recent "elevated" rates so big banks can scoop up smaller ones in short term and inflation has some check, then back to lower rates after election. I'll hold inflation hedging assets indefinitely.

US is screwed financially. Still better than most economies, but still screwed. Unfunded liabilities, AI, wage gap, education and housing costs, populism, political divide, geopolitical battles. There is no thesis that is great for the US unfortunately. It's best pitch is other countries are just as screwed or more.

There is no way out of the debt load. All solutions require printing like crazy. Or defaulting but you cannot give up the world reserve currency and the fallout would be catastrophic.

[Hock88sdx]

There is one way. US government can mint print any coin denomination they like. If US Mint print 10T usd coin for just special occasion and hand it over to Feds, all is good. I am waiting for this crazy idea to happen.

[exclusiv]

That was a gimmick that made the rounds to get around a debt ceiling. It doesn't escape the debt spiral the US is in.