[amayne]

Exceptions happen. When I decided I wanted to be a novelist I wrote ten books in one year and only released the ones I liked. I'd write a book then read a book on writing and try to improve. I'd give my books away to anyone who asked and turned them into free podcasts.

A year later I was one of the top ten best-selling indie writers on Amazon, I had my first movie deal and representation from an amazing agent who stuck by me through the rough parts.

Luck and timing were big factors. I also locked myself in my house for 12 months straight and did nothing but focus on being a better writer and create as much output as I could to get traction. I spent a tremendous amount of psychotic energy at building my writing business. Most people give up. I was 37 and desperate to make it work.

When I went with a traditional publisher it was frustrating at first. I was getting critical nods (I was a finalist for the Edgar and the Thriller Award) but the sales numbers weren't the same as when I was independent.

Eventually I found a great publisher (an imprint with Amazon Publishing) and it was a perfect match. My first novel with them (The Naturalist) spent six weeks in the number one spot (even outselling Harry Potter.) I now do two books a year with them.

I don't have the quite the sales or name recognition of a James Patterson or Stephen King, but I became a millionaire from publishing and investing on those earnings before I started working in AI.

I can't speak to the part of the article about advances. They're based very heavily on your sales history. I had to work my way up to six-figure advances. If you have John Scalzi sales numbers you can pick your terms. David Baldacci doesn't ask for an advance. He just splits the profits with the publisher. People like him are in a whole different league.

tldr: Luck and timing matter, but so does being an absolutely focused psychopath who gives up a social life, television, games and everything else to get what you want.

[AnimalMuppet]

But how many are absolutely focused psychopaths who give up social life, television, games and everything else, and still don't make it?

[amayne]

Fair question. In my anecdotal experience everyone I know who had persistent energy, focus and a mechanism for improving their craft achieved something interesting. Sometimes it was ended up in screenwriting or an adjacent field, but something came of it.

My friends who produced excuses became really good at that. My friends who produced real works and continued to improve became good at that instead.