SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

[sukhavati]

I'm quite worried as I'm on a transatlantic flight during this event, and there have been 6 solar eruptions with at least 4 CMEs (NOAA not up to date with the enlil spiral just yet). Here are a couple useful links I'm using to keep track of this event: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center dashboards [1], FlightAware Flight Delays and Cancellations [2] and NOAA Global Positioning System Community Dashboard [3], Prof. Mathew Owens post [4]

[1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aviation-community-das... [2] https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/today [3] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/global-positioning-sys... [4] https://x.com/mathewjowens/status/1788655731471696372

[op00to]

Why are you worried? Not saying you're wrong to be worried, but I'm interested to know what the actual concern is.

[sva_]

This site is also pretty good:

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/

Looks promising so far.

Edit: damn those values are crazy. Gonna climb the mountain tonight. Fingers crossed for a clear sky

[atonse]

I came here to say the same. I will also be on a transatlantic flight on the 12th. Is there anything to be worried about with airplane electronics systems in flight, or is it more potentially on the side of "there might be flight delays"?

[DoctorOetker]

in link [4], what timezone is displayed? trying to figure out if I will be at the day or night side

[idontwantthis]

Are you worried enough to not fly?

[jwjohnson314]

If you have a pair of eclipse glasses you may be able to see the sunspot cluster causing all the action with them, it’s enormous.

[icegreentea2]

I just went a took a look, seems like I could see sunspots around the 3oclock position.

[webdoodle]

Tony Philips with NASA runs Spaceweather.com. Yesterday he posted a pic, with an overlay from the 1859 Carrington Event sunspot. They are the same size. Let that sink in.

https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=05&...

[ablation]

> Studies suggest that Carrington-class storms occur once every 40 to 60 years, so we're overdue. Don't worry, though. The four CMEs currently en route to Earth--even combined--are probably no match for the monster CME of 1859. The Carrington Event won't happen again this weekend.

[sukhavati]

the solar spot is comparable in size but the CME were significantly (100x) less energetic than is estimated for Carrington. With that said, the Earth's magnetic field has weakened by ~15% since the 1800s so there's that...

[FL410]

I am confused by the slide, which mentions in the first bullet point that this is the first "G4" since 2005, but in the last bullet point says there was one in March.

[Shank]

It’s the first G4 watch, but not the first G4 event. In other words, the prior G4 event was not predicted. It can happen that an event is more significant when it arrives than what was predicted, which is what happened here.

[uticus]

it's a typo, Mar 2024 was a G3, not G4. ref https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39796973 and link in comments there.

[edit] i stand corrected, there was a G4 in march. sibling comment is correct. ref https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/severe-g4-geomagnetic-storms-...

[ChrisArchitect]

[dupe]

More discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40315394

[mikewarot]

One of these days I'll see the Northern Lights.... somehow I don't think this will be it. 8(