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KorematsuFredt | 1 year ago

This is not a forum of geopolitics experts but I think this wars is the biggest threat we currently have for tech progress. If Russia takes over Ukraine next step would be proxy wars in Europe, breaking down EU/NATO coupled with US domestic politics turning nativist which will burn our future. This war must end one way or another sooner.

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rightbyte|1 year ago

Threat to tech progress? How is that a priority? If the US and Russia gets into a war with each other, we die. Dunno how many nines of the HN userbase but I guess atleast two?

People talk about this in no way like it was reasoned about in the 90s and ... it is a bit concerning.

JumpCrisscross|1 year ago

> if the US and Russia gets into a war with each other, we die

America and Russia aren't going to war. Leadership may be nuts, but contrary to popular reporting Putin's war in Ukraine was--at least at its outset--popular among Russia's elite. Those elite are not suicidal.

Putin is issuing China's final warnings [1]. Letting American weapons fired by the Ukrainian army hit Russian military targets inside Russia simply isn't a material escalation in proxy war terms. Even the U.S. Navy helping Ukraine with its air defence in respect of missiles and drones wouldn't be a true escalation; the history of proxy wars during the Cold War with the Russian state's predecessor showed that quite clearly.

The escalation would be American missiles fired by Americans hitting anything in Russia. That's a hard line we didn't cross in the Cold War. It's a line both sides are excruciatingly respecting today.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning

pylua|1 year ago

Is this really true? I hope the U.S. would not die. I do guess the fallout could not be contained. However I hope we have planned for and train for these scenarios.

belter|1 year ago

You can have a few hours warning, if you tag and track Peter Thiel private jet...if you see it heading to New Zealand...

belter|1 year ago

Depending who will win the next US presidential elections, the scenarios you highlight can come sooner one would even imagine.

In Europe at the moment, there is only one real military power and that is France plus with a little help from the Nordics. The rest is almost non existent, and I am including the current German army. It's calculated they might currently be able to provide ammunition for maybe 15 days...

"The state of the Bundeswehr is more dismal than ever" - https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/01/26/the-state-of-the...

A US president hostile to NATO or compromised, would make for very concerning scenario's within months....

On other side, you have a country of 200 million, with a GDP that is almost 20% fully invested on weapons and ammunition production, currently fully on a path of war. Putin could get 2 million soldiers in 3 months in case of a general mobilization.

xenospn|1 year ago

3 million useless untrained unmotivated soldiers who are not good for much more than dying in droves.

avmich|1 year ago

> This is not a forum of geopolitics experts

In democracies the ultimate power belongs to people, so it's at least good to know the opinion of them. For this particular war it looks like there's an overwhelming support of Ukraine in the world, including significant portion of people in Russia, especially if corrected for propaganda bias.

In case of Ukraine losing - which frankly seems rather theoretical - it's doubtful Russia will have enough resources to immediately continue to other European territories. However, this bad case should be avoided with all seriousness, as it brings only negative results to everybody involved, including Russian people.

beardyw|1 year ago

> This war must end one way or another sooner

Sorry, but this is detached from reality. If your country were invaded, would you give up just to make other people's lives a bit more comfortable?

avmich|1 year ago

The war could end in mere months if the West would provide adequate supplies to Ukraine.

theGnuMe|1 year ago

If Trump wins NATO is sol.