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magicloop | 1 year ago

Those problems of unaffordability of homes is a symptomatic effect of an earlier problem. During COVID-19, facing possible catastrophe in the Economy, Trump presidency pumped money into the US economy. The Biden presidency continued this (despite no indicator of recession). There is a 7% gap between Federal income and expenditure, and this drives up the interest rates, making home ownership less affordable. "Across the aisle" there is no appetite to raise taxes or cut spending so the problem will only get worse. Since the dollar is a global reserve currency, any printing of money is diluted across the global demand for dollars. So the reckoning will come quite late (in contrast with Greece who had to be bailed out following a similar trajectory). But the reckoning will come. Unless spectacular success in productivity arises from AI (which cannot be discounted - the US is a leader here), there will be a crunch where savage cuts and bail outs are needed.

Note US GDP looks great until you realise that it is in dollars whose nominal purchasing power is diminishing. There is no better was of seeing this than in the price of housing.

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