Good article wrt question of forecasts and accuracy - charts 30 past years of forecasts and matching observations.
It might be easy to dismiss the Pennsylvania forecast. In some corners of the Internet, Mann is viewed as a master of climate doomerism for his outspoken views on the perils of a warming world. But if anything, since its first issuance in 2007, Mann's forecast has proven to be conservative.
The forecast accuracy could use a dedicated article.
It tracked very well from ~1997-2002, 2008-2012, and 2014-2015. It was off, from 1994-1996, 2003-2004, 2006-2007 2015-2020. In 3 of the 4 cases there the fore cast under-predicted major storms, outside the std of the forecast. I wonder why.
defrost|1 year ago
remarkEon|1 year ago
It tracked very well from ~1997-2002, 2008-2012, and 2014-2015. It was off, from 1994-1996, 2003-2004, 2006-2007 2015-2020. In 3 of the 4 cases there the fore cast under-predicted major storms, outside the std of the forecast. I wonder why.