[m0rc]

I think the problem is not just software estimation, but project cost and time estimation is difficult across many domains (construction, transportation, IT, defense, and even the organization of events).

The word "mess" seems to indicate that the uncertainty is easily fixed, but if it has happened across domains for several millennia, it could indicate that there is something fundamentally challenging.

The situation worsens with factors such as project size, requirement changes, methodology (too much or too little of it), technology (specially new technologies), the nature of the delivering institution (public institutions performing worst than private ones), and organizational culture (e.g. waterfall being in many cases detrimental by making adaptations more difficult).

There are certainly bad ideas in the field of estimation, like assuming a Gaussian distribution, but the problem is far from trivial.

See for example:

* Defense: Bolten, Joseph G., et al. Sources of weapon system cost growth: Analysis of 35 major defense acquisition programs. Rand Corporation, 2008.

* Public works: Flyvbjerg, Bent, Mette Skamris Holm, and Soren Buhl. "Underestimating costs in public works projects: Error or lie?." Journal of the American planning association 68.3 (2002): 279-295.

* Transportation: Cantarelli, Chantal C., et al. "Cost overruns in large-scale transportation infrastructure projects: Explanations and their theoretical embeddedness." arXiv preprint arXiv:1307.2176 (2013).

* Olympic Games: Flyvbjerg, Bent, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn. "Regression to the tail: Why the Olympics blow up." Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 53.2 (2021): 233-260.