[techbro92]

I think the reason for this is that most people don’t even know the answer. If there were only 2 options when this question was asked then 49% of people saying the s&p500 is down would indicate a low confidence result I think. The number is basically a meaningless coin flip.

[jncfhnb]

Eh. You need the average person being more likely to guess incorrectly given at least some of them will know the right answer