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hscontinuity | 1 year ago

It is naive of humans to believe we can accurately model something we cannot measure against. Until a time machine enables someone to vastly scale back climate data, we have a huge missing gap and continually rely on the short term models for association, whereby those models are a collaboration of data collected over roughly 400 years. The last 250 are better statistically and the last 50 are exceptionally accurate.

But to levy them upon data extrapolated without correlation is where science falls short. You can surmise the corroboration between soil, ice, and methane samples as well as biological data from the eons; but piecing together a picture is more akin to believing the extremely faint stars you see in the night sky - are still there.

We tend to believe what is in front of us not realizing that change is happening all around us, every moment, every microsecond. Nothing ever stays the same. This is true of climate change as it is humans.

The debate on what to do about change and how much humans have potentially and/or are contributing is an entirely different discussion. With technology perhaps we'll coalesce. It is otherwise far more likely that the planet and the cosmos could make it so we can't.

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defrost|1 year ago

It's not clear to me what you're attempting to convey.

Those in applied math are pretty clear about what can and can't be modelled.

The majority of people I've met understand that almost nothing is stationary, the planet moves about the sun which moves about a galactic core which in turn moves through the universe all the while as molecules vibrate within various forms of matter.

None of which negates the AGW position.

hscontinuity|1 year ago

The first part implies that we cannot model something we don't have a good picture of. The data collected for climate modeling scaling back millennia first, then on to the decem mil; etc. Going back an aeon it becomes even more unsubstantiated.

The second part implies that while certainly many in academia and beyond are fully aware of our constant change, we tend to lend society a belief that time stands still. Same as it ever was, the moon follows the sun, the north star is essentially stationary. These types of conventional take generally wreak havoc in large scales.

And if we naive humans know anything worth knowing at all, we certainly know our perception of large scales lacks in enormous context.