[mhardcastle]

This goes massively against the consensus of experts in this field. The modal AI researcher believes that "high-level machine intelligence", roughly AGI, will be achieved by 2047, per the survey below. Given the rapid pace of development in this field, it's likely that timelines would be shorter if this were asked today.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/10/24032987/ai-imp...

[ein0p]

I am in the field. The consensus is made up by a few loudmouths. No serious front line researcher I know believes we’re anywhere near AGI, or will be in the foreseeable future.

[comp_throw7]

So the researchers at Deepmind, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc, are not "serious front line researchers"? Seems like a claim that is trivially falsified by just looking at what the staff at leading orgs believe.

[MacsHeadroom]

51% odds of the ARC AGI Grand Prize being claimed by the end of next year, on Manifold Markets.

https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-pri...

[fastball]

This could also just be an indication (and I think this is the case) that many Manifold betters believe the ARC AGI Grand Prize to be not a great test of AGI and that it can be solved with something less capable than AGI.

[enragedcacti]

I don't understand how you got 2047. For the 2022 survey:

    - "How many years until you expect: - a 90% probability of HLMI existing?" 
    mode: 100 years
    median: 64 years

    - "How likely is it that HLMI exists: - in 40 years?"
    mode: 50%
    median: 45%

And from the summary of results: "The aggregate forecast time to a 50% chance of HLMI was 37 years, i.e. 2059"

[Retr0id]

Reminds me of what they've always been saying about nuclear fusion.