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randomsolutions | 1 year ago

I agree it seems like flimsy justification. But it is also likely harder to assess and communicate. Temperature they get a point prediction for the high and you can easily calculate the mean absolute error.

For precipitation you will be getting percent chance often with an interval, 10% chance of 0.1-0.25 inches with higher likely in thunderstorms. Also precipitation patterns tend to be much more irregular within small spatial extents. You can asses things like calibration and perhaps take a mean value for there intervals to get point errors. But all of this will make it harder to communicate actual performance.

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bastawhiz|1 year ago

But temperature error matters a lot less. 82° instead of 87° is "high" error but the practical difference for me is essentially zero. If it's raining when my phone said it wouldn't rain, I have to change my plans.

dendrite9|1 year ago

I had a friend who did forecasting for a utility and getting the forecast wrong by 5 degree would have been very expensive at the time. I don't remember if it was worse in the summer (AC) or winter. And I wish I could remember if they were buying just electricity or also natural gas

In the same vein as you, I don't care much if it is raining at my office closer to the mountains but I care about it at home. The distance is ~10 miles and I regularly can see a difference.