[nuclearnice3]

This page has a graph of cumulative revisions of the last two months.

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/99068/nonfarm-payrolls-month...

BLS explains why the revisions occur: "The initial estimate of job change for a month is based on the growth or loss of jobs at the businesses that have reported their data. Generally, BLS assumes that the employment situation at businesses that had reported is representative of the situation at those that had not yet reported. BLS continues to collect outstanding reports from the businesses in the sample as it prepares a second and then a third estimate for the month. With each subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their information. In 2012, the average collection rate at the time of the third estimate for a month was 94.6 percent. (See chart 1.)"

https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/revisions-to-jobs-numb...

There may be a conspiracy to manipulate the numbers or a bias in the collection process or some dependence on the state of the economy. I didn't look closely at those theories. Some of which are compatible with the BLS revision process and some of which challenge it.

[_heimdall]

That chart is exactly what I was looking for, thanks! Looks like we had a very small upward revision in March and a larger one in January, but the 12-month average has been a downward revision since Jan 2023.

Historically it sure looks like they regularly under estimated jobs and revised upwards. A statistical analysis would be interesting, but just eyeballing the chart it looks like a meaningful difference.