[snake_plissken]

I really want to use these advanced approaches more, and they make a lot of sense in the daily fantasy scene (this analysis was for tourney long EURO 2024 I think?), but for something like season long NFL, I am convinced it is mostly luck:

  Hope your top 3 picks stay healthy

  Hope your 3-4 "flyer" picks (the guys who are on a new team, rookies, etc.,) don't completely bust

  Play the waiver wire (mid week pickups to fill in positions where needed) well

The one part where more skill/operations research is involved would be playing the matchups (top defense vs crap offense, WR1 vs rookie corner) but even then it's not a surefire recipe for success since there is so much variance (that top WR play might be nuked by a run oriented game). But it is playing smart so you should do it.

[wil421]

Almost every year my American football fantasy team is loaded with injuries. If your season is too long and close to the playoffs, teams will start benching star players so they don’t get hurt.

One of the worst parts for NFL are the divas who can’t control their off field behavior or emotions. I’m looking at you Antonio Brown.

[soared]

Id love to see an analysis on skill v luck for nfl fantasy. Far too often do I see someone who does not watch football and does not make team changes win a league after drafting Tom Brady in the second round.

[vitaflo]

I used to be co-owner of an NFL fantasy prize league company (before Fanduel et al came along and put us and all of our competitors out of business). After a decade of seeing thousands of users create an manage teams for an entire season I'd say it's probably more skill than luck but luck plays a much bigger factor than people are willing to admit.

The biggest problem with leagues is everyone in the league remaining involved even when it's obvious they're out of the playoff race. This can lead to lopsided victories later in the season and change playoff seeding. This can be just as impactful as any injuries or bad weeks and the like. It was a constant challenge for us and is something the daily leagues don't have to worry about.

The fantasy playoffs are probably the most pure form of NFL fantasy leagues but that is also very dependent on who the opponents are for each of your players those last couple weeks and who is even avail to play given players being rested or injured later in the year.

In some ways this actually isn't a whole lot different than the actual NFL. That said we did seem to see the same people every year win more often than others, so it's not all luck.

[defen]

To be fair, I've also seen actual NFL teams win way too many Super Bowls after drafting Tom Brady in the sixth round.