Multisatellite data depicts a record-breaking methane leak from a well blowout

[thinkcontext]

Better satellites and other aerial survey data has determined that oil and gas related methane emissions are far, far higher than industry reports. Everywhere independent researchers look along the production, transmission, distribution and end use pipeline they find more leakage than has been assumed because industry has provided the numbers the assumptions are based on for years.

Along some particularly leaky production paths methane emissions are so great that the impact is greater than coal over 100 year timescale. For example, some parts of NM Permian have a 9% (!) leakage rate. When combusted methane releases about half the amount of CO2 that coal does. The eGHG potential of methane is 20x CO2 over 100 year timescale, so you have to add 180% to the total GHG potential, making it 40% worse than coal w/o even considering other leakage along the pipeline.

https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/methane-leaks-are-f...

[james_david]

In Massachusetts, Lost and Unaccounted for Gas (LAUG) is estimated per mile of pipe, rather than evaluated by regulators or even industry. It is a simple multiplication problem with little bearing on reality. Consumers bear the cost of LAUG while the utilities are guaranteed a 10% profit on their infrastructure expenses. This, along with subsidies for leak prone pipe replacement, leads to needless investment in outmoded fossil fuel infrastructure (i.e., pipe replacement) being prioritized over leak repair.

[Lerc]

Wouldn't that mean that the impact of the methane per unit is less if the measured outcomes were assuming much lower levels.

Presumably that would be good news if you could reduce the emissions to the level they thought they were.

[xyst]

This is why the O&G backed SCOTUS has defanged the regulatory agencies.

[Retric]

Those 100 year timescale numbers are misleading as the impact is so front loaded. They only make sense when talking about an emissions that are constant through long timescales.

[downWidOutaFite]

We're cooked

[schappim]

Ouch! They’re estimating 131 kt of methane! That’s equivalent to approx 3.93 Megatons of CO2 (in terms of its global warming impact over a century) or roughly equivalent to that of a small country like Iceland or Malta annually.

[cjr]

3.93 megatons of CO2 is roughly equivalent to:

  • About 149,714 short-haul flights, or
  • About 37,429 long-haul flights.

[dartharva]

How much ∘C of change in global temperature does this translate to?

[idontknowtech]

If you want to get really scared about methane leaks, sinkholes are forming across the tundra as global warming melts the permafrost, creating gigantic methane bubbles as the previously frozen organic material now rots. Those bubbles explode once big enough, creating massive pockmarks which fill in with water.

The amount of methane they leak is estimated to be gigantic, but without full coverage we'll never know.

[dpkirchner]

The fact that we haven't solved the methane leak problem, despite methane being valuable, makes me think that carbon capture that involves pumping CO2 into caves or whatever will have zero chance of success. Anyone promoting such tech is, IMO, a fraud.

[rzzzt]

The description says this happened in 2023 June-to-November-ish in Kazakhstan. It sounds like this was a smaller version of Turkmenistan's crater: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darvaza_gas_crater

[linotype]

We’re not going to make it are we?

[anonym29]

Short of China and India voluntarily holding themselves to the same standards as Western Europe and the US for free, we are not going to avoid catastrophic global warming.

The good news is, while we may not be able to prevent climate change, we are not powerless against it.

The Dutch know how to win the fight against sea level rise.

Middle Eastern architecture knows how to keep people cool even with >50°C air temperatures.

The Canadians know how to winterize an electric grid.

Sure, we may not have the optimal strategy for addressing some threats, like wildfires, right now, but the point is, we are not alone, and we are not helpless.

Countless human lives can be saved if we're willing to work together.

[darkteflon]

Not even close.

https://jonathanfranzen.com/what-if-we-stopped-pretending/

[carapace]

Only time will tell.

But the things to do to try to avert looming disaster are the same things to do to be a better person in times of no crisis.

Be kind and loving, develop compassion. That's pretty much it.

The point is not to make it or not. Entropy is the enemy and it will win in the end. So what? No one here gets out alive. The point is to be a better person, to help others, to make things better.

If we are going to make it we will make it though love and compassion.

If we don't make it, then at least we didn't waste the time we had.

[sdkman]

I don't think so :(

[2OEH8eoCRo0]

We will but not at our current numbers. Rich countries will suffer the most.

[ars]

We'll be fine. We'll have to make adjustments, but we'll be fine. So will the planet, and so will the vast majority of animals.

[blueflow]

The methane plume is 2 km off from the blowout location:

https://satellites.pro/Kazakhstan_map#A45.338220,52.376976,1...

It is probably a pipeline leak.

[kjkjadksj]

There is going to be a point in the climate change phenomenon where we have to start taking aggressive measures and actually go after the biggest polluters no matter what nation they hide behind. Especially considering there will probably be forces working to undermine all of these climate goals. Maybe the US could throw some of that military budget around and use Seal team sappers to disable these polluting industrial plants? Now before people get guarded at that idea, just consider the US already does the same to kill actual people with such operations. Merely disabling infrastructure not only has some precedent, but also seems far more benign to me.

[thinkcontext]

Trade wars are more likely than shooting wars, but I suppose its not impossible for the former to provoke the latter.

[czbond]

Let's say I have free time on my hands. How could I maximally remove methane from the atmosphere?

[SoftTalker]

Methane breaks down pretty quickly in the atmosphere, half-life is under 10 years. We don't need to remove it so much as stop leaking it.

[consp]

Eat a cow, do not replace it, and wait for it to escape the atmosphere or decompose naturally. And lighting a methane leak on fire can also help.

(sarcasm tag)

[whall6]

Walk down your street lighting matches every five feet

[dvh]

Is carbon the Great filter?

[euroderf]

Maybe on Venus. I've read a convincing case that Venus can never be terraformed, simply because there is too damned much carbon.

[metadat]

Meanwhile, the Centralia coal mine fire in Pennsylvania is projected to continue burning for another 250 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centralia_mine_fire

This is all concerning.

[ornornor]

> leaked 131kt +/- 34kt of methane

> The eGHG potential of methane is 20x CO2 over 100 year timescale

It’s hard to not feel hopeless. Keep recycling your single use plastics, I guess we’ll be fine.

[rkagerer]

It was in Kazakhstan. Fined <$1M (or <$10/tonne).

[openrisk]

It is deeply ironic that the modern technological era provided both the means for destroying the planet and monitoring that destruction to minute detail.

[swayvil]

why don't they have a little methane-detector-activated igniter? Burn it up before it gets away.

[jofer]

It's a blowout. That means what it sounds like. An explosion and a fire. To fix it, you have to put out the fire. Once you put out the fire, you're still releasing methane.

Methane is flared instead of released under normal conditions if it's not being captured. A blowout is very much not normal conditions.

[chidli1234]

I wonder if these types of events were taken into account in those models for climate change.

[thinkcontext]

Single events just aren't that big against the background of global oil and gas production emissions, let alone overall global methane emissions. Its true that O & G emissions are higher than most governments report but most models take this into account in some fashion.

Its also a big topic of research to account for methane emissions because the measured amount is larger than models are predicting from known inventories. But its not thought to be from events like this.

[bamboozled]

I really hope so.

So glad I'm installing solar this year, I'm thinking about building a car port and adding even more panels too.

[arthurz]

How much is that in Social Carbon? Pun intended as why one would impose carbon taxes if the other countries so careless?

[thinkcontext]

The EU is getting ready to impose a carbon border price which will be in proportion to estimates of carbon emissions. So, there will be a price on carelessness if it can be measured by satellites.

[downrightmike]

Social Carbon is just marketing from fossil fuel companies to confuse people into thinking that its people's fault and for companies to shirk responsibility.