[mxwsn]

This article is timely and pairs well with Sequoia's $600B question: https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/ais-600b-question/ calculated simply from NVidia run rate revenue, which is the cost that genAI companies are paying. Where's the profit?

Meta's open source LLM stance makes things more spicy, making it challenging for anyone generate differentiated and lasting profit in the LLM space.

At the current pace, the LLM bubble is poised to pop in a year or two - negative net revenue can't keep growing forever - barring a transformative, next-generation capability from closed-source AI companies that Meta can't replicate. All eyes on GPT-5.

[lostmsu]

I just got a bit of data that hints that at least one of the assumptions in this blog post is false.

The post says:

> The supply shortage has subsided: Late 2023 was the peak of the GPU supply shortage. Startups were calling VCs, calling anyone that would talk to them, asking for help getting access to GPUs. Today, that concern has been almost entirely eliminated. For most people I speak with, it’s relatively easy to get GPUs now with reasonable lead times.

But a couple of days ago I heard from a startup founder that the usual cloud credits (~$100k in cloud compute) that AWS provides to vetted startups that passed some milestones are recently barred from being used on GPU-powered instances.