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ReaLNero | 1 year ago

I don't really buy this.

An equivalent economic policy would be if Europe and India were both allowed to buy oil, but capped at India's current amount (let's say 20% of pre-war baseline). Perhaps this can be called a "fractional" embargo.

Is this really desirable? The pain of going from 80% embargoed to 100% is much greater for Russia than 0% to 20% -- a 100% would likely cripple the war. To be fair, not saying that was a card in play due to China, Iran, etc. But arguing it's good economic/diplomatic policy is unclear since it makes the embargo weaker

discuss

order

rramadass|1 year ago

The paramount objective is Economic stability by controlling/managing global oil price volatility; everything else is secondary (i.e. Realpolitik). That is why the sanctions are full of loopholes for various European countries (see [1] below).

1) The disillusionment and hope of Western sanctions against Russia - https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/disillusionment-russia-sa...

2) The impact of Russia–Ukraine war on crude oil prices: an EMC framework - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-023-02526-9