Intel seems 100% tied to its outcomes as a foundry now. If there is any disruption in chip prodution from Taiwan for example, I can see its stock doubling in price.
Devils Advocate: If there is no disruption in Taiwan, and TSMC continues to execute as it has, and Intel continues to execute as is has (not), then Intel might go to $0 or survive only because of government subsidies and military contracts.
NVIDIA, AMD, Apple and other companies seeking cutting edge performance will choose the most advanced node to stay competitive. Being the second best foundry has historically not been good business.
The immediate winners will be Samsung and Globalfoundries, since they have wide arrays of foundries with different processes (including specialized ones for automotive/avionics grade components, dram, cmos sensors, etc.), spare capacities, existing customers with designs tailored to their processes, and extensive experience in helping customers getting their designs ported.
Intel is going to fight an uphill battle with all these issues, it's likely that TSMC the other competitors can expand capacity faster than Intel can convince customers to gamble on them.
I would not. There is nothing to indicate Intel leadership is capable of executing. Bean counters are not the kind of leadership you need in a changing environment.
But boring stuff has low margins. Intel has been living in a high-margin world at least since the 8086. They currently don't know how to survive on low margins. I'm not sure they can learn.
This is what a lot of people who have no idea about the semi industry miss because they get all their education from news headlines. Which is what I assume leads to Intel's massive stock drop. People voting on FUD, kind of like the opposite of the hype that pushed Nvidia to the moon, but when you asked investors who bought Nvidia, what Nvidia actually makes, most are clueless and only bought out of hype and FOMO.
Everyone assumes the world only needs 3nm chips because that's what TSMCs latest cutting edge node is and that's what they learned powers their iPhone, but the reality is the world runs on nodes much larger than that. To put this into perspective, the new TSMC fab being built in Germany will tape out 28/22nm nodes and then upgrade to 16/12 nm nodes mostly for robotics, industrial, IoT and especially automotive. Just let that sink in. Even Global Foundries is stuck at 12nm.
Intel's 4 process is cutting edge by comparison and plenty of international players who can't afford TSMC or Samsung would gladly pick up that node capacity for the right price.
shaism|1 year ago
NVIDIA, AMD, Apple and other companies seeking cutting edge performance will choose the most advanced node to stay competitive. Being the second best foundry has historically not been good business.
This is an extreme scenario, of course.
bradleyjg|1 year ago
People sometimes wonder why anyone is buying Boeing planes—it’s because it’s that or nothing. Airbus has no spare capacity.
creshal|1 year ago
Intel is going to fight an uphill battle with all these issues, it's likely that TSMC the other competitors can expand capacity faster than Intel can convince customers to gamble on them.
minkles|1 year ago
rapsey|1 year ago
I would not. There is nothing to indicate Intel leadership is capable of executing. Bean counters are not the kind of leadership you need in a changing environment.
AnimalMuppet|1 year ago
Rinzler89|1 year ago
This is what a lot of people who have no idea about the semi industry miss because they get all their education from news headlines. Which is what I assume leads to Intel's massive stock drop. People voting on FUD, kind of like the opposite of the hype that pushed Nvidia to the moon, but when you asked investors who bought Nvidia, what Nvidia actually makes, most are clueless and only bought out of hype and FOMO.
Everyone assumes the world only needs 3nm chips because that's what TSMCs latest cutting edge node is and that's what they learned powers their iPhone, but the reality is the world runs on nodes much larger than that. To put this into perspective, the new TSMC fab being built in Germany will tape out 28/22nm nodes and then upgrade to 16/12 nm nodes mostly for robotics, industrial, IoT and especially automotive. Just let that sink in. Even Global Foundries is stuck at 12nm.
Intel's 4 process is cutting edge by comparison and plenty of international players who can't afford TSMC or Samsung would gladly pick up that node capacity for the right price.