[cjbillington]

FWIW, the fact that the recession market on Manifold doesn't resolve until the end of 2025 (to give the NBER time to declare a recession) limits how low people will push the probability. I'm the biggest NO holder, and my credence is closer to 10%, but the rate of return isn't attractive enough to bet it lower. This is somewhat asymmetric, since bettors who expect a recession also expect an earlier payout.

I made this derivative market to try to address the issue somewhat, but not much trading yet:

https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-manifold-pric...