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RhodesianHunter | 1 year ago

Housing supply is inelastic due to the time it takes to permit and built.

Housing demand is more elastic than you suspect. People have income on a curve, and at a certain point of price/quality will move further out and commute or move to a lower cost of living city entirely.

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bobthepanda|1 year ago

The NYT recently did a piece on how the tendrils of the housing crisis have made it out to places like Kalamazoo, MI that are not really traditionally high COL cities with booming economies. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/22/business/economy/housing-...

We are running out of cheap places to live in. Remote work has mostly pushed the crisis to other places without a corresponding pressure release in the high COL areas.

bick_nyers|1 year ago

I can't read the article because of the paywall, but Kalamazoo is unique due to the Kalamazoo Promise, where college tuition (in the state of MI) is paid for if you attend Kalamazoo Public Schools. For me that was $60k of tuition I didn't have to take out loans for. Housing/grocery prices have gone up there but not nearly as dramatically as other places.

WarOnPrivacy|1 year ago

> People have income on a curve, and at a certain point of price/quality will move further out and commute or move to a lower cost of living city entirely.

This doesn't describe the major renter class who has few workable options to choose from. They take whatever they can get.

Once they manage a place to live, they're likely trapped there because they don't have a wad of cash on hand (required to move).

That's average renter difficulty. It can get far worse.

In 2021, the few rentals available here got 400 applications/day. We beat out 50 applicants for one that was advertised for 2 hours (offered 6mos up front).

We beat long odds and barely avoided homelessness (even tho we had good employment history + money in the bank).

Many, many others were less lucky. Every rent-by-the-week hotel filled up, typically with people exhausting their savings.

bluGill|1 year ago

People also start to take on roommates or become roommates. People in general want a place of their own. However as rent goes up they will start to be willing to rent the upper bunk in a bedroom, and people who do have a place to live start to become willing to rent out part of their bedroom just to afford the rent. For most this is the last option they will take (homeless might be better if they can find a place to sleep the night outside)

gen220|1 year ago

In NYC, the typical non-negotiable broker's fee for a not-disintegrating apartment ranges from 10-15%. That's on top of a security deposit and all the other costs associated with moving. It's a cartel that can only be broken by collective political action.

Things are slowly moving in that direction, only because the pressure has been so high for so long. It almost boiled over during COVID in some neighborhoods. There are still works of "Abolish Rent" graffiti left over from that time.

gen220|1 year ago

Meanwhile, I know many people in NYC who spend ~60% of their post-tax income on rented housing.

Nobody is happy about it or thinks it's a good idea, but living further out is not perceived as a legitimate option because of the fear of being severed either socially or career-wise.

Whether that's a rational fear or not, it's a reality that allows housing prices to outpace wage gains every year. As somebody who used to think housing demand is fairly elastic: housing demand is much less elastic than you'd suspect.

RhodesianHunter|1 year ago

Yes, living in one of the, if not the, most desirable cities on the planet comes with additional costs.