[stolenmerch]

Let's try to calculate an optimal prepping strategy using a back-of-the-envelope Bayesian approach with expected utility. We need to estimate the probability of a societal collapse along with its potential severity. Then, assign utility values to each combination of severity and prepping actions. I think we can actually make informed choices here instead of pretending we know how a highly chaotic, future system might function.

Prepping actions could be anything from a well-stocked pantry to fully equipped underground bunker.

EU(A) = P(C) * Σ[P(S | C) * U(S, A)]

EU(A) is the expected utility of prepping action A

P(C) is the probability of a collapse occurring

P(S | C) is the conditional probability of a specific severity S given a collapse

U(S, A) is the utility of action A given severity S

We can leave it to the reader to make their own decisions.