[crystalmeph]

In five years you might be able to start teasing out the effects of the sudden rise in interest rates. Right now, we're still feeling echoes of the pandemic and subsequent "snap-back" in economic activity.

Look at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCSA, set the units to "percent change from year ago," and zoom out to "Max". The pandemic effect dwarfs anything else in the entire history of the unemployment program. I think future economic research may well have to discard the years 2020-2024 because the circumstances were so unique and the distortions were so severe.