[christoph]

I warned anybody considering it, during the COVID era, that buying a watch as a long-term investment was a terrible idea. Good advice at any time, particularly during COVID though. Buy a watch because you love it and will wear it! It’s taken slightly longer than expected, but looks exactly how I imagined.

A Rolex GMT BLNR (Batman) was hitting grey market prices in the UK near £20k at its peak, whereas they are down at around £11k. Still selling over retail (~9.5k), but a huge correction.

I think much danger still lies ahead for the mid/high brands like Rolex/Omega/etc. Large 2nd hand watch dealers have very high stock levels. Watchfinder for instance currently has over 2.5k pre-owned Rolexes. Many of these will have been bought well over RRP and I think will still struggle to find many buyers at current prices.

The pre owned retailers are going to find themselves in a real bind as prices reach parity with OEM pricing, as why would you pay more for a preowned item? Previously it was because you wanted the watch NOW! But I don’t think Rolex can continue to play games with the customer via their dealer network much longer in current market conditions, so I would expect OEM availability has to improve, further hitting those grey/pre-owned retailers. In fact, I think in the lead up and during COVID Rolex especially did a lot to damage their reputation with many customers and potential customers. Anybody who has played cat & mouse with a Rolex approved dealer will know exactly what I mean.

Additionally, I think the social/economic landscape has changed greatly in the last two years since COVID, that this might just be the start. I personally know a lot of people that won’t wear luxury or luxury looking timepieces out, due to either fear (theft, numerous recent UK news stories of often violent daylight robbery) or embarrassment (many people feel a sense of guilt wearing £10k+ on their wrist when around people struggling to pay for basics). This sentiment doesn’t hurt them much if it’s short-term, but it massively reduces your buyer pool if it persists long term and your customers are primarily the middle class.

As somebody else mentioned, the top tier luxury/niche brands like Patek don’t need to worry about such matters, their pool of buyers is so small and immensely wealthy, while their yearly output is even smaller than this, demand will always outstrip supply.

[Yodel0914]

> Additionally, I think the social/economic landscape has changed greatly in the last two years since COVID, that this might just be the start.

This is a good point. Not only is there the theft and social guilt aspect, but there's also the unwanted association with "influencers". 5 years ago no one knew what watch anyone was wearing unless it was a Rolex, but now the general public is far more aware of other brands and what they cost.