As someone who remembers that time very well I disagree.
Smartphones followed a similar path to the internet i.e. completely new paradigm, that had immediate benefit but needed technology to improve to become widely adopted. But where the roadmaps to improve these technologies were clear and well defined.
AI is far more akin to nuclear fusion where each step along the way will require major scientific breakthroughs. And where it's not clear how to get this grand AGI end-game. Especially as OpenAI has said advancements depend on compute capacity that we simply don't have.
Even with their current capabilities, these AI systems will dramatically improve productivity. We could have a 20-year AI 'winter' with no new advancements, and they'd still be a big deal.
The thing is that it will take years to integrate them into existing domains and workflows. Honestly I think the most relevant comparison is the rise of desktop computers themselves. Suddenly paper-based processes had to become electronic and in some cases that took 40 years.
I think it's more like nuclear fission, frankly. I don't think the major breakthroughs will be as difficult to achieve, but we'll have a trail of nasty side effects and bad actors that will be left in its wake.
In 2020 I never thought an AI would code for me. And now it turns out, it's pretty good. But AI Slop is pretty much a toxic mess.
> AI is far more akin to nuclear fusion where each step along the way will require major scientific breakthroughs. And where it's not clear how to get this grand AGI end-game.
We have AI now. We've had it for ages. We just stop using that term for things once we've gotten them working.
We also already have artificial entities that are smarter and more capable than a lone human, and have for a long time. Bureaucracy and writing are incredibly powerful technologies, especially when combined.
>AI reminds me of the internet in 1999." -- Peter Thiel[1]
It just feels like we're still in the pre-Navigator days though, circa '94. All of this complex orchestration work needs to be baked into a single model. I don't want to learn how to implement a multimodal agent system. I want to tell something what to do and have it do it for me perfectly with no more interaction than a simple prompt. Fortunately this is just a software engineering problem now, not a CS one.
I agree completely. The companies I'm currently most excited about are all working on making some sort of E2E platform, weaving together all of the component pieces into a cohesive whole.
threeseed|1 year ago
Smartphones followed a similar path to the internet i.e. completely new paradigm, that had immediate benefit but needed technology to improve to become widely adopted. But where the roadmaps to improve these technologies were clear and well defined.
AI is far more akin to nuclear fusion where each step along the way will require major scientific breakthroughs. And where it's not clear how to get this grand AGI end-game. Especially as OpenAI has said advancements depend on compute capacity that we simply don't have.
[1] https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/
CSMastermind|1 year ago
The thing is that it will take years to integrate them into existing domains and workflows. Honestly I think the most relevant comparison is the rise of desktop computers themselves. Suddenly paper-based processes had to become electronic and in some cases that took 40 years.
bb88|1 year ago
In 2020 I never thought an AI would code for me. And now it turns out, it's pretty good. But AI Slop is pretty much a toxic mess.
tbrownaw|1 year ago
We have AI now. We've had it for ages. We just stop using that term for things once we've gotten them working.
We also already have artificial entities that are smarter and more capable than a lone human, and have for a long time. Bureaucracy and writing are incredibly powerful technologies, especially when combined.
ramesh31|1 year ago
It just feels like we're still in the pre-Navigator days though, circa '94. All of this complex orchestration work needs to be baked into a single model. I don't want to learn how to implement a multimodal agent system. I want to tell something what to do and have it do it for me perfectly with no more interaction than a simple prompt. Fortunately this is just a software engineering problem now, not a CS one.
tmpz22|1 year ago
kylecazar|1 year ago
yumraj|1 year ago
So are we expecting a ai bubble burst as well?
blurty|1 year ago
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xyst|1 year ago
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