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Linux market share approaching 4.5% for first time, could hit 5% by 1Q25

61 points| solraph | 1 year ago |tomshardware.com

95 comments

order

cebert|1 year ago

Microsoft seems determined to push people away from Windows with its user-hostile tactics—built-in ads, constant nagging about Edge, and forced OneDrive backups. It's really soured my experience. I’m done with Windows personally. While I have to use Win11 at work, I won't use it anywhere I have a choice.

the_snooze|1 year ago

I finally made the switch earlier this year after realizing just how good Steam Proton is for gaming on Linux. Day-to-day computing on Linux is just so nice compared to Windows. It doesn't feel like I'm fighting with the OS anymore; the machine actually serves me now, instead of it constantly trying to undermine my intentions.

monero-xmr|1 year ago

For people who never use anything except macOS / Linux, I challenge you to install Windows and experience it for yourself. The entire OS is like surfing the internet without ad block on. The nags, the pop ups, the malware you can’t remove. It’s truly incredible how awful Windows is. They are just milking the aging demographic who still uses Windows and squeezing as many clicks out of them as they can before Windows is dead as a home OS.

dboreham|1 year ago

> built-in ads, constant nagging about Edge, and forced OneDrive backups

I must be using it wrong because I don't have any of those things.

htoweir342343|1 year ago

I imagine the moronic mass-bricking a few months back also forced people to move away from that eco-system.

jmclnx|1 year ago

No kidding, I'm building a PC for someone to move to Linux, probably MX

boomboomsubban|1 year ago

Statcounter's data is based off hits to a certain websites. Not unique hits but hits. It's really hard to see their data as worthwhile from my perspective.

This is already desktop stats, a market that isn't really growing. Then figure they're unlikely to be partnered with anyone like Facebook, Tiktok, or Discord, the sites that 90% of users spend most of their time on.

Think of the remaining internet they might have deals with, does that seem representative of users as a whole? Now add in that it's based on hits, with no reason to suspect they're effectively filtering out bots. I don't see the value of such data.

hansvm|1 year ago

> filtering out bots

For all but the most advanced of bots, the only such filtering comes from something as simple as a user-agent or other maybe some other header fingerprinting. What percentage of bots even bother to switch from the default of "python-requests/2.25.0" so that they might be detectable as Linux?

7e|1 year ago

Yes, their data is garbage. macOS losing 20% share in one month. ChromeOS losing 50% in one month. A huge "unknown" share. Lots of volatility. This is just the Linux faithful seeing what they want to see.

vlovich123|1 year ago

Desktop and laptop sales have been declining worldwide for years and while laptops have dipped up in 2023 desktops continued their downward trend.

My hunch it’s less that people have suddenly discovered Linux and more that desktop sales have been slipping for a long long time so either it’s shifted to Apple or people stick with just phones and tablets. Thus it’s not necessarily that Linux market share has increased because of increasing numbers vs a dedicated minority sticking with a dying market segment.

surgical_fire|1 year ago

Unless I misunderstood something, the graphic shown on the article does not imply that. Linux market share grew from a decline from OSX and ChromeOS, while Windows share is more or less stable.

pessimizer|1 year ago

Desktop and laptop sales are declining, but that's probably because they're all fast enough now and there's no reason to replace them unless they break. That's actually more room for Linux, because the big two OSes are gradually going to leave those people behind. Most people are going to have fairly new phones in their pockets and super-old laptops at home.

Anecdotally I've been getting a lot of calls from normies afraid of surveillance and now AI in the OS (both Mac and Windows), asking how to switch to Linux. The ones on Windows also very much hate Windows.

I have a feeling that Microsoft and Apple will not mind this, Linux desktop share getting that high is in fact a comforting, Firefox-sized claim that consumers have other, freer, functional options. It also allows their most disgruntled users to leave rather than become obsessively angry with an OS they've been trapped with.

ClassyJacket|1 year ago

I truly believe that once Linux solves its app packaging problem it could go mainstream for casual use on home laptops. (Office machines obviously are a different beast, needing Microsoft Office\365 support, etc).

We're 99% of the way to being able to hand an everyday person a laptop with Linux on it and have them have a decent experience - but they need to be able to go to a website and download a program without screwing around with package managers and wondering if someone's even made a package for their distro. Flatpak and Snap are great, but then you still have to worry about which of those, if any, your computer supports. That's fine for anyone on Hacker News, but it's not fine for my parents or most people who don't take a special interest in tech.

If they do that, 2078 really could be the year of the Linux Desktop. But in the meantime we'll all have been using Steam Decks anyway.

Tho if it does become mainstream I do admit I'll miss feeling special and smart.

Andrex|1 year ago

Flatpak is winning and will ultimately win. Flathub is really good and has momentum behind it.

mixmastamyk|1 year ago

App stores already solved this for regular folks.

hansvm|1 year ago

Suppose websites don't change. What should Linux do about:

1. Packages only offering building from source for the Linux crowd.

2. Packages with soft DRM, offering Windows builds easily and Linux builds referencing the forums.

3. Packages with hard DRM, actively rejecting attempts to run on Linux.

4. "Downloads" built for YUM or APT or whatever.

5. "Downloads" which are basically just scripts designed to shit all over your directory structure and do the real installation later.

6. Downloads only available for a particular distro, and only then by trusting a third-party repo and otherwise doing key-based shenanigans.

...

I bet you could get a decent chunk of the way there with a script turning the "normal" install procedure from that above garbage into a nice desktop icon and an easily deletable binary (with an associated uninstallation script), but people package software differently for Linux than they do for other OS's, and unless you change that part of the culture or manually package a lot more things I don't think you'll solve that particular problem.

actinium226|1 year ago

One of these years, it'll be the year of the Linux desktop.

Just you wait.

qwertycrackers|1 year ago

5% is honestly meeting that benchmark imo. One in twenty? That's firmly a competitor. Certainly nowhere close to leader but no longer a rounding error you can't even see in a pie chart.

7thpower|1 year ago

Fusion or ubiquitous Linux desktops (wsl does not count), which happens first?

masfoobar|1 year ago

If linux hits 5% this would be huge news and something Microsoft should be taking note.

Reminds me of an old Red Hat advert likely from the late 90s, based on the following quote (I cannot remember who said this.. gandhi???) :-

- First they ignore you - Then they laugh at you - Then they fight you - Then you win

At the end of the advert it said something like "You are here" which shows an aeroplane about to take off... just a matter of time before it leaves the ground. Its kinda symbolic to tell you its just a matter of time.

Of course, things have changed since this advert as the last 10 years Microsoft have been open towards Linux. While they are contributors, I still have doubts of their intentions. Personally, I view Microsofts strategy to control the GNU/Linux ecosystem not by the OS but their software. If they manage to win Linux distributions to use their tools by default (MS SQL Server, .NET, Powershell, etc) - would give them a lot of control!

Of course, linux admins might laugh at that idea... use Powershell? Please! -- But microsoft have some great influence due to their money and advertisement. Things could change drastically in the next 10-15 years.

Imagine big businesses using .NET or SQL Server and start to use Linux over Windows. Big businesses will happily throw support money. Makes you wonder how distributions will alter their views in a few short years.

Despite all I covered, Microsofts decisions on Windows 11 is baffling. At the end of the day, I just want a vanilla install of Windows. If there is a peice of software or feature I want -- I will install it or turn it on myself. Windows is no longer viewed as an Operating system but a full on IoT Service.

It just moves more people over to GNU/Linux. I only have 1 laptop using Windows at home - and I only have it for a job. I leave this job soon and when I do, the first thing I am doing is wiping Windows 11 for Debian.

I have Steam... so as long as I can play my favourite games on Linux (which are not the latest games) I am good! Despite being a Linux user for many years, I am still behind on the gaming side.

mostlyRice|1 year ago

Maybe this 4.5% is just the technical crowd?

Now that windows UX is getting shittier, if there's a linux distro usuable without ever pulling up a terminal, maybe linux has some chance with non technical people.

pjmlp|1 year ago

That space is already taken by Android, ChromeOS, and WebOS, where the Linux kernel is an implementation detail, not directly exposed to userspace.

Gigachad|1 year ago

The steam deck is a fully consumer friendly Linux device that fits that criteria.

alberth|1 year ago

> Linux market share of desktop operating systems

This is measuring Desktop share, in case you’re curious.

Given that mobile is > 50% Linux (android). And I have to imagine server Linux share similar.

kevin_thibedeau|1 year ago

I set my user agent to Windows Chrome most of the time to minimize hassles. Linux usage is guaranteed to be higher than the official numbers.

butz|1 year ago

All the games I play are working on Linux without issues, no need to waste time with whatever is left of Windows.

BrandoElFollito|1 year ago

I use Linux on my servers and would love to use it on my laptop.

But there is Outlook and some corporate tools - it should be possible to find workarounds but I am not sure of that (how to read my PSTs for instance).

I try every 2 years for the last ... not sure ... probably 30 years to switch, the time is coming for a new test.

etaioinshrdlu|1 year ago

Are we sure these are desktops like Ubuntu or something a little bit miscategorized, like Android or ChromeOS?

hiyer|1 year ago

If it included Android, the numbers would be way higher. Android is over 70% of mobiles worldwide, and mobiles outnumber desktops by 2 to 1.

tkz1312|1 year ago

android and chromeOS are usually excluded, but steam decks are included

jdlyga|1 year ago

It comes down to the fact that Linux is just so damn easy nowadays.

SoftTalker|1 year ago

It is, until it isn't. If you deal with people in the mainstream business, legal, healthcare, etc. worlds you'll run into issues. If you work in one of those mainstream fields, you'll find yourself quite limited if you're running anything but Windows. None of your corporate/enterprise software will work unless it's web-based (which is more and more the case, but certainly not always).

pjmlp|1 year ago

Until one gets to install into a NUC with an UEFI that doesn't get Linux, despite all magic incantations on hard disk setup, or a wlan router whose connections keep being dropped.

My latest fun.

ashvardanian|1 year ago

Are those mostly tech people or is it the general public?

hsdropout|1 year ago

Do non tech people run Linux? I've not seen this.

mrbluecoat|1 year ago

I recently switched to Elementary OS and for the first time I could imagine a world with sizeable market share.

marcosdumay|1 year ago

That 3.1% -> 4.5% -> 5% would be a very large acceleration from the previous trend.

BikeShuester|1 year ago

Linux distros should collaborate on a unified feedback initiative to boost adoption. The major distributions (Ubuntu, Fedora, OpenSUSE, etc.) could create a joint survey site targeting Windows users who have tried Linux but reverted back. This would provide invaluable data on pain points preventing wider Linux adoption.Questions like: What Windows-specific software or functionality did you miss most on Linux? If you could change one thing about Linux, what would it be? What was your primary reason for returning to Windows?

moondev|1 year ago

What would the purpose of that be? Why so much effort to increase "market share" of something that is not for sale. The entire concept of "switching" is weird because you don't have to legally declare your operating system. You can choose to use all of them.

wmf|1 year ago

They know what the problems are. They don't have the manpower to develop more than a fraction of what users want.

senectus1|1 year ago

how do they meausre this?

I mean, is it counting distro hopping fresh installs?

or simultanous concurrent running sessions (telemetry hell) ?

udev4096|1 year ago

That's a good question. I have lots of desktop templates on proxmox for spinning up VMs every now and then. I think maybe a month of usage might count as a legitimate user

boomboomsubban|1 year ago

They track website hits of their partners.