[no_op]

In his recent "Intelligence Age" post, Altman says superintelligence may be only a few thousand days out. This might, of course, be wrong, but skyrocketing demand for chips is a straightforward consequence of taking it seriously.

[rsynnott]

> may be only a few thousand days out

This is actually quite clever phrasing. "A few thousand days" is about ten years, assuming normal usage of 'few' (ie usually a number between 3 and 6 inclusive).

Now, if you, as a tech company, say "X is ten years away", anyone who has been around for a while will entirely disregard your claim, because forward-looking statements in that range by tech companies are _always_ wrong; it's pretty much a cliche. But phrasing as a few thousand days may get past some peoples' defences.

[rrrix1]

"Tech CEO declares major breakthrough is within reach, less than a handful of a billion seconds..."

[slashdave]

Only if you think scaling is the solution to AGI, which it almost certainly is not

[oska]

The mistake isn't thinking 'scaling is the solution to AGI'.

And the mistake isn't thinking more generally about 'the solution to AGI'.

The mistake is thinking about 'AGI'.

There will never be an artificial general intelligence. There will never artificial intelligence, full stop.

It's a fun concept in science fiction (and earlier parallel concepts in fantasy literature and folk tales). It's not and will never be reality. If you think it can be then either you are suffering from 'science fiction brain' or you are a fraud (Sam Altman) or you are both (possibly Sam Altman again).

[no_op]

Demand for compute will skyrocket given AGI even if AGI turns out to be relatively compute-efficient. The ability to translate compute directly into humanlike intelligence simply makes compute much more valuable.