The economic model and decisions of Cuba is a terrible idea and could never work.
To show you how confident we are in this, we will engineer the harshest economic hit job and we will sanction the sh out of them, and every other country that tries something similar.
Undoubtedly the US embargo and its extension of potential sanctions to foreign entities which violate are in part causes of a weak economy.
However, this is an incomplete picture. Cuba has essentially no market economy whatsoever. All evidence throughout history shows this is economic suicide and is undoubtedly an even larger cause of their issues. It's so bad that in the FT this week (https://www.ft.com/content/9ca0a495-d5d9-4cc5-acf5-43f42a912...) this incredible line is written:
"Chinese officials have been perplexed and frustrated at the Cuban leadership’s unwillingness to decisively implement a market-oriented reform programme despite the glaring dysfunction of the status quo, the people said."
That's the CHINESE (Marxist at least in name) government lamenting the lack of Cuban adoption of market principles.
Further, the article makes quite clear that the US Embargo, for whatever it is worth, doesn't extend to the entire world (which should be obvious) noting very specific relations with multiple major Chinese companies. So even though Cuba is clearly able to trade with the second largest economy in the world (with giant enterpries like Huawei and ZTE), with a population of greater than 1B, they are still somehow completely incapable of operating a function al economy.
What's more, a cursory understanding of Cuban history should show that they are avowedly enemies of the US having once attempted to host nuclear missiles aimed at the US. What is the US to do? Actively support a regime which has threatened tens of millions of its people?
If the US is "almost alone", it shouldn't matter that the US isn't trading with Cuba. It's an island, there are plenty of countries they could trade with.
Cuba is collapsing because of failed economic policies and the resulting emigration.
What can Cuba offer? Same problem with Haiti, what can Haiti offer? Not even China seems interested in paying peanuts for them (The way they are buying Nicaragua and Venezuela)
Man, I wish the sanctions would be lifted just so that the leftists holding these countries hostage, and their fellow travelers, don't have an excuse for running them into the ground because they believe in the worst ideology in history.
Cuba trades just fine with China, EU, Canada even, not even considering South America. The numbers are out there. Also countries like Venezuela were not nearly as heavily sanctioned and yet they speed-ran the left playbook to run their economy into the ground in record time. On the other hand, somehow sanctions didn't do much to damage Russian internal economy, as much as I wish they did - probably because even mafiosos and strongmen are not as dumb as leftists. OTOH^2 economically illiterate Erdogan was able to make lira crash without any sanctions. That was from just one stupid idea, whereas leftism is a whole stupid system.
Also, why should they need trade to provide basic services that most countries provide locally? Forget power, Cuba is/was one of the major, and most famous, tobacco producers. A middle-aged US man once told me he often goes on vacations to Cuba (flying thru Canada), because "girls there will sleep with you for a pack of American cigarettes". The regime is so incompetent they cannot even provide basic local goods that require ~no trade.
Cuba has been going through a crazy major decline ever since COVID. It's pretty rare for a mostly developed country to collapse into poverty without a war.
It’s unfortunate that Cuba is so reliant on inefficient oil fired plants. Solar power could easily cover their needs if it weren’t for the economic and sanctions situation. I feel like we will be seeing this bloom into a more political situation before too long.
stupid question: cuba is a hot country that supposedly receives plenty of sunlight throughout the year, why hasn't there been a solar initiative for every house or something along those lines?
I don't think it's a stupid question. Cuba is increasing their solar energy, as far as I know they plan to increase their 200 something MW to 2 or 3 GW over the next 4-5 years. There are a lot of challenges in doing that though, one of them is the US. We build (or buy and upgrade) solar plants around the globe but we wouldn't risk the US market over going into Cuba. I doubt we're the only ones. Then there is the question of funding, which I would guess is an issue if they can't pay for the fossil fuels needed to keep their fossil fuel power plants running.
Considering the recent crisis seem to have been caused by lack of maintenance solar is probably a good option for Cuba as it doesn't require much. Once you set up a park it'll work for 25 years at least and even continue working for decades afterwards on tolerable levels. You'll need to do greenfield work and replace a panel once in a while, but a lot of parks can be almost left alone from an engineering perspective.
This is a bit of a side note, but heat isn't a benefit. I know we tend to think of hot areas which get a lot of sun as good places for solar plants, but today's solar tech loses a lot of efficiency to heat in temperatures above 25 degrees celsius. By a lot I mean that we don't even build parks in areas that go above 20-25 degrees if there are no outside incentives like green tariffs or NGO support.
Solar installations in capital societies have taken off due to initial government and private sector investment.
Despite Cuba opening up over the last decade, there's still not good investment infrastructure to support large scale solar and wind installations. In other words, it's still a semi communist government that leans much more towards Soviet style versus China.
The article itself talks a bit about how the general electrical infrastructure in the country is aging and needs maintenance and upgrades.
Combine the government policies, general economy, hostility to foreign investment, etc and you hopefully get an idea of why solar hasn't had a major impact.
It would be a really good opportunity for the US to go and offer to help. It would be huge for diplomacy between the two countries. Send sec. Pete over with his infrastructure expertise and let’s help modernize their grid and build better relations.
A crisis is a terrible thing to waste or something along those lines.
Hopefully there will be some sort of study released relating to the restart of the grid. From memory of the 2003 East Coast Blackout the restart mechanics are fairly complex.
Commies bringing misery to people unfortunate enough to be subject to their governance: hardly shocking.
Commie apologists complaining about US sanctions: pathetic.
IMO Cuba has nothing going for it except geography and sugar.
- Sugar = historic / principle natural resource exports for FX to fund imports since island has not much else (except doctors)
- Geography before USSR = next to US, good for USSR military posture -> support + handouts during cold war
- Geography after USSR collapse = nice place to vacation, again FX to fund imports
IIRC Castro pivoted from sugar to tourism post USSR collapse... and it worked alright. Look up charts for decline in sugar displaced by more tourism increase post 90s. GDP growing pretty steady. Wasn't going to make Cuba high income, but can kind of see how tourism driven model might work. Problem is of course global drop in demand = bad for tourism. Cuba international arrivals precovid about ~4.5m, last year was ~1.5m = empty FX for imports.
The big long term problem with tourism strategy... 300m+ American's not travelling to Cuba.
The short/medium term fix is Canadians, who consistuted something stupid like 40% of inbound tourists (~4.5m = ~2m tourists/vistors + ~2.5m stopovers) to Cuba, ~1M+ per year. Canadian tourists down to 600k. Which is partly due to Canadian economy. But also... it's been 20+ years of cheap Canadian flights to Cuba... at some point every Canadian that wants to goto Cuba has gone to Cuba. And really we're talking about 60% of Canadians living ~4 hour flight from Cuba. There isn't another advanced economy in the region to pick up slack. Except US... with even less travel time. So it's true Cuba can trade with lots of countries, many like Canada who despite US alignment, don't agree with US sanctions. But Cuba's got nothing significant to trade (enough to fund FX that can cover imports) for except nice weather, which is constrained to the amount of people who want to pay for nice Cuban weather, which happens to be a lot of Canadians. Everyone else short flight away has nice weather of their own.
A Chinese isn't going to pay $1500+ to fly (more importantly) 30 hours to Havanna.
If Cuba wants to get anywhere, it needs to make nice with US, and US tourists. Compare to Dominican Repubic... basically Cuba population and ~2M+ extra tourists per year, but that 2M+ are US tourists, and DR per capita is upper middle income.
OR Cuba needs to convince PRC to be sugar daddy like USSR. Cuba in mid 2010s imported "only" a couple billion... i.e. it doesn't take much imports in $$$ for the country to not be total shitshow like now. But billion here and there is real money. It's to be blunt, military base the size of US in JP or SKR money (1-4B). PRC currently not interested in that, because that's how you get nukes deployed in SKR and JP, and past history suggest that's how you start WW3. And lets be honest, if this ever happens, US is going to lean HARD on Canada shutdown tourists, and west aligned bloc going to actually come aboard US sanction train.
einszwei|1 year ago
Sanctions on Cuba have strangled their economy and spread misery among the population.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/11/1143112
US is almost alone in spearheading the embargo.
serial_dev|1 year ago
To show you how confident we are in this, we will engineer the harshest economic hit job and we will sanction the sh out of them, and every other country that tries something similar.
Respectfully, the US and its lackeys
oldnetguy|1 year ago
They have the whole world, their economy shouldn't need us.
Let them work with China and see how well that works out
creddit|1 year ago
However, this is an incomplete picture. Cuba has essentially no market economy whatsoever. All evidence throughout history shows this is economic suicide and is undoubtedly an even larger cause of their issues. It's so bad that in the FT this week (https://www.ft.com/content/9ca0a495-d5d9-4cc5-acf5-43f42a912...) this incredible line is written:
"Chinese officials have been perplexed and frustrated at the Cuban leadership’s unwillingness to decisively implement a market-oriented reform programme despite the glaring dysfunction of the status quo, the people said."
That's the CHINESE (Marxist at least in name) government lamenting the lack of Cuban adoption of market principles.
Further, the article makes quite clear that the US Embargo, for whatever it is worth, doesn't extend to the entire world (which should be obvious) noting very specific relations with multiple major Chinese companies. So even though Cuba is clearly able to trade with the second largest economy in the world (with giant enterpries like Huawei and ZTE), with a population of greater than 1B, they are still somehow completely incapable of operating a function al economy.
What's more, a cursory understanding of Cuban history should show that they are avowedly enemies of the US having once attempted to host nuclear missiles aimed at the US. What is the US to do? Actively support a regime which has threatened tens of millions of its people?
bpodgursky|1 year ago
Cuba is collapsing because of failed economic policies and the resulting emigration.
catlikesshrimp|1 year ago
sershe|1 year ago
Cuba trades just fine with China, EU, Canada even, not even considering South America. The numbers are out there. Also countries like Venezuela were not nearly as heavily sanctioned and yet they speed-ran the left playbook to run their economy into the ground in record time. On the other hand, somehow sanctions didn't do much to damage Russian internal economy, as much as I wish they did - probably because even mafiosos and strongmen are not as dumb as leftists. OTOH^2 economically illiterate Erdogan was able to make lira crash without any sanctions. That was from just one stupid idea, whereas leftism is a whole stupid system.
Also, why should they need trade to provide basic services that most countries provide locally? Forget power, Cuba is/was one of the major, and most famous, tobacco producers. A middle-aged US man once told me he often goes on vacations to Cuba (flying thru Canada), because "girls there will sleep with you for a pack of American cigarettes". The regime is so incompetent they cannot even provide basic local goods that require ~no trade.
tomjen3|1 year ago
pragmomm|1 year ago
China's Xi vows to support Cuba in defending its national sovereignty https://www.reuters.com/world/chinas-xi-vows-support-cuba-de...
TechDebtDevin|1 year ago
[deleted]
lalaland1125|1 year ago
Roughly 5% of the population is fleeing the island each year: https://miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cub...
creddit|1 year ago
Since when was Cuba, post Castro, anything other than impoverished?
93po|1 year ago
throwaway199956|1 year ago
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/cuba-power-grid-1.7356496
It appears power is being restored atleast in some parts.
Also airports and flight operations seems not to have been affected.
gnabgib|1 year ago
K0balt|1 year ago
xvector|1 year ago
vivzkestrel|1 year ago
Quothling|1 year ago
Considering the recent crisis seem to have been caused by lack of maintenance solar is probably a good option for Cuba as it doesn't require much. Once you set up a park it'll work for 25 years at least and even continue working for decades afterwards on tolerable levels. You'll need to do greenfield work and replace a panel once in a while, but a lot of parks can be almost left alone from an engineering perspective.
This is a bit of a side note, but heat isn't a benefit. I know we tend to think of hot areas which get a lot of sun as good places for solar plants, but today's solar tech loses a lot of efficiency to heat in temperatures above 25 degrees celsius. By a lot I mean that we don't even build parks in areas that go above 20-25 degrees if there are no outside incentives like green tariffs or NGO support.
lalaland1125|1 year ago
China, the main seller of solar, has publicly stated that Cuba is not paying their bills
https://www.ft.com/content/9ca0a495-d5d9-4cc5-acf5-43f42a912...
rapsey|1 year ago
tgcordell|1 year ago
rapsey|1 year ago
geuis|1 year ago
Despite Cuba opening up over the last decade, there's still not good investment infrastructure to support large scale solar and wind installations. In other words, it's still a semi communist government that leans much more towards Soviet style versus China.
The article itself talks a bit about how the general electrical infrastructure in the country is aging and needs maintenance and upgrades.
Combine the government policies, general economy, hostility to foreign investment, etc and you hopefully get an idea of why solar hasn't had a major impact.
gigatexal|1 year ago
A crisis is a terrible thing to waste or something along those lines.
perihelions|1 year ago
einszwei|1 year ago
The best thing US could do is relax the decades long sanctions on Cuba (which almost the whole world opposes)
know-how|1 year ago
[deleted]
frenchman_in_ny|1 year ago
ocschwar|1 year ago
voidfunc|1 year ago
iwontberude|1 year ago
justinko|1 year ago
FerretFred|1 year ago
ikekkdcjkfke|1 year ago
tamaharbor|1 year ago
Andrew_nenakhov|1 year ago
Hope Cubans will some day be free people again.
pack_stimulus|1 year ago
crummy|1 year ago
maxglute|1 year ago
- Sugar = historic / principle natural resource exports for FX to fund imports since island has not much else (except doctors)
- Geography before USSR = next to US, good for USSR military posture -> support + handouts during cold war
- Geography after USSR collapse = nice place to vacation, again FX to fund imports
IIRC Castro pivoted from sugar to tourism post USSR collapse... and it worked alright. Look up charts for decline in sugar displaced by more tourism increase post 90s. GDP growing pretty steady. Wasn't going to make Cuba high income, but can kind of see how tourism driven model might work. Problem is of course global drop in demand = bad for tourism. Cuba international arrivals precovid about ~4.5m, last year was ~1.5m = empty FX for imports.
The big long term problem with tourism strategy... 300m+ American's not travelling to Cuba.
The short/medium term fix is Canadians, who consistuted something stupid like 40% of inbound tourists (~4.5m = ~2m tourists/vistors + ~2.5m stopovers) to Cuba, ~1M+ per year. Canadian tourists down to 600k. Which is partly due to Canadian economy. But also... it's been 20+ years of cheap Canadian flights to Cuba... at some point every Canadian that wants to goto Cuba has gone to Cuba. And really we're talking about 60% of Canadians living ~4 hour flight from Cuba. There isn't another advanced economy in the region to pick up slack. Except US... with even less travel time. So it's true Cuba can trade with lots of countries, many like Canada who despite US alignment, don't agree with US sanctions. But Cuba's got nothing significant to trade (enough to fund FX that can cover imports) for except nice weather, which is constrained to the amount of people who want to pay for nice Cuban weather, which happens to be a lot of Canadians. Everyone else short flight away has nice weather of their own.
A Chinese isn't going to pay $1500+ to fly (more importantly) 30 hours to Havanna.
If Cuba wants to get anywhere, it needs to make nice with US, and US tourists. Compare to Dominican Repubic... basically Cuba population and ~2M+ extra tourists per year, but that 2M+ are US tourists, and DR per capita is upper middle income.
OR Cuba needs to convince PRC to be sugar daddy like USSR. Cuba in mid 2010s imported "only" a couple billion... i.e. it doesn't take much imports in $$$ for the country to not be total shitshow like now. But billion here and there is real money. It's to be blunt, military base the size of US in JP or SKR money (1-4B). PRC currently not interested in that, because that's how you get nukes deployed in SKR and JP, and past history suggest that's how you start WW3. And lets be honest, if this ever happens, US is going to lean HARD on Canada shutdown tourists, and west aligned bloc going to actually come aboard US sanction train.
wcfields|1 year ago
OfficeChad|1 year ago
[deleted]
0xbadcafebee|1 year ago
[deleted]
cottsak|1 year ago
What a world we live in!