[ford]

Seems like both:

- AI Labs will eat some of the wrappers on top of their APIs - even complex ones like this. There are whole startups that are trying to build computer use.

- AI is fitting _some_ scaling law - the best models are getting better and the "previously-state-of-the-art" models are fractions of what they cost a couple years ago. Though it remains to be seen if it's like Moore's Law or if incremental improvements get harder and harder to make.

[skybrian]

It seems a little silly to pretend there’s a scaling “law” without plotting any points or doing a projection. Without the mathiness, we could instead say that new models keep getting better and we don’t know how long that trend will continue.

[ford]

"Law" might not be the right word - but there's no denying it's scaling with compute/data/model size. I suppose law happens after continued evidence over years.

[ctoth]

> It seems a little silly to pretend there’s a scaling “law” without plotting any points or doing a projection.

Isn't this Kaplan 2020 or Hoffmann 2022?