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ls65536 | 1 year ago

The GFS is a coarser model which covers the entire globe, so while the overall situation at the synoptic scale will tend be modeled quite well (at least inside of a few days into the future), the resolution of smaller-scale weather phenomena taking into account local factors just isn't going to be there.

For something maybe more useful on the local scale, you can also look at a model like the HRRR (which I believe does take into account the terrain and other local effects from things like larger bodies of water). While this model only really covers the conterminous United States and southern Canada, I've generally found it good for showing the shorter-term, local weather details, including forecasting convective storms and winds on and around the Great Lakes.

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