My prediction is that Rural America will continue to clear out [1]. Young folks with options will continue to move to urban areas for economic opportunity, leaving behind folks who won’t have options because the new administration isn’t going to care about them [2]. At the same time, red states with abortion restrictions are losing obgyn’s fast [3] [4] [5] [6]. This will lead to increased infant mortality and rational actors not living someplace they can’t get maternity care (“maternity care deserts” [7]). A lack of healthcare access in general is also a contributing factor [8]. This impairs the pipeline for future productive workers who might have stayed or were considering a move. Why there won’t be more immigration in the near term should be obvious.
Blue states will be fine. They are, for the most part, the economic engines of the country.
The little blemish in that scenario being that that the US's food supply and natural resources come from its rural areas. If the prices of food and other goods keeps rising, you won't be able to count on urban voters behaving sensibly either.
toomuchtodo|1 year ago
Blue states will be fine. They are, for the most part, the economic engines of the country.
[1] https://www.npr.org/2023/07/07/1186531913/fighting-populatio...
[2] https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/10/older-populat...
[3] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/more-medical-residents-a...
[4] https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/4721173-draconian-abo...
[5] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/06/us/politics/abortion-obst... | https://archive.today/oc0Gl
[6] https://www.axios.com/2023/04/18/abortion-ban-states-drop-st...
[7] https://www.npr.org/2022/10/12/1128335563/maternity-care-des...
[8] https://www.goodrx.com/healthcare-access/research/healthcare...
ThrowawayR2|1 year ago
toomuchtodo|1 year ago