[aiforecastthway]

Top500 is weird for lots of reasons. It over-indexes on a few peculiar types of workloads and a few peculiar types of users (mostly gov).

Historically, those workloads and users were leading indicators of certain types of things. I don't think that's true anymore. In fact, I wonder if this is mostly a story of the government agencies not being able to compete with the private sector for NVIDIA gpus.

[latchkey]

I think you nailed it on the head.

Companies like CoreWeave have deployed so many giant clusters (and growing), it is insane. Their IDLE compute is larger than most of the supercompuers out there.

Of course, they aren't on the list either.