[lukol]

While the math is clear, I'm a bit annoyed by the label "paradox" as the whole setup is too simplistic and reductionistic.

The actual chance of being in the same room with someone who shares your birthday needs to include other factors like your socioeconomic background, the cultural environment you are in, your present location, and certain historical facts.

Without having done the math, I'm fairly certain that a member of the baby boomer generation in New York has a higher chance of meeting their birthday sibling than a 12-year-old in a rural part of Australia.

[seritools]

> While the math is clear, I'm a bit annoyed by the label "paradox" as the whole setup is too simplistic and reductionistic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox#Veridical_paradox

(also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppX7Qjbe6BM for a 40min video discussing the weird usages of the word "paradox")

[lukol]

Thanks, I was not aware of this classification. I primarily tend to think of paradoxes as "self-contradictory statements" but you just expanded my definition.

[Balgair]

Wait, how is the math clear? There was no math presented on the site, I didn't see a single formula

[lukol]

Took a brief look at the Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

[wodenokoto]

Wait, what?

Are you saying that income influences what time of the year you are born?

The paradox doesn’t talk about meeting your birthday sibling, but meeting two people who are birthday siblings.

So by the time the 12 year old has met ~20 people, there is a 50/50 chance that amongst those 20, there’s a birthday pair.

[lukol]

> So by the time the 12 year old has met ~20 people, there is a 50/50 chance that amongst those 20, there’s a birthday pair.

If you randomly choose the ~20 people from the global population then yes, this will be the case (especially after a number of rounds). And yes, I'm aware this is also the definition of the paradox.

But if you choose the people from your vicinity (i.e the people you are actually likely to meet), the chances will vary based on your individual parameters (which defines the number and quality of the sample size).

[tomtom1337]

Could you explain more what you mean? Other than certain holidays perhaps causing a higher chance of alone time for future mom and dad, I don’t see what you mean, and I don’t understand your last paragraph.