[yyuugg]

I don't know that I agree with this characterization. Was Assad particularly stable? Was he able to prevent rebel groups effectively?

HTS of today might be different from HTS of the past, but that's very much could be just their propaganda. We'll see. Given "guaranteed evil" vs "probably evil" I'd probably prefer the lesser evil.

I very much suspect Russia is fully focused on Ukraine and cannot or will not project force in the region.

Iran has been remarkably restrained over the past little while, and I suspect they want to keep things cool and not hot.

[inglor_cz]

"Was Assad particularly stable?"

Looking at the speed with which the Syrian military now unraveled, the government was an empty shell of its former self.

Russia was in no position to intervene. First, the development was too quick. Second, the best units are on the Ukrainian front and redeploying them would certainly inspire the Ukrainian General Staff to probe the Russian defenses. Third, the Russian general (Kisel) tasked with leading the Syrian detachment was/is an incapable commander, sent there as a punishment.

Russia cannot fight two wars at once.