Show HN: Marathon Cope 2024 – Your peak fitness, whether or not you ran it

[mattlondon]

Can you use it without Strava? E.g. runkeeper?

Strava is just so horrible to use with all its gamification and social aspects. For me running is a solitary pursuit with significant mental side-benefits, but Strava is trying to tell me about someone I don't know running a particular stretch faster or slower than me, trying to egg me on to go faster or further or out-run someone locally etc. Do not like. RunKeeper is just a simple tracker with none of the bullshit, so I prefer it.

[tmulc]

I totally see your point (many competitive runner never posts to Strava, anyway). I'm working on a Garmin integration now, so that should be available soon. It looks like runkeeper only has manual activity exports, so I'd have to provide a way to allow for manual activity uploads, too, which is doable!

[wjnc]

Back in the day I had my running PB’s and current times in an Excel (financial ey) comparing them with the line of the world records. Worked pretty spot on. Better 5k leads to a proportional gain on the longer runs. Never beat the 50% slower mark on any of my times. Nowadays with VO2-max, HRV and other measures personal predictions must be getting easier. Although my Garmin watch thinks I’m world class VO2-max, which is a joke.

[qmatch]

What did the line represent? It’s always surprising how predictable it is to estimate people’s race times given what you know about their fitness. That said, about 10% of the time someone surprises you with a time you wouldn’t expect.

[tmulc]

My Garmin times are also a joke, which is why I created getfast! (To be clear though, Garmin makes incredible watches, and their predictions have gotten a lot better in the past year . . .)

[zljsdtc]

As an early adapter, I can testify that the prediction has been spot-on for 6 of my half-marathons. It gives me a realistic goal to chase, allows me to adjust my training, and provides good feedback on the training. Would recommend people to check it out!

[lamberce]

Interesting. I’d always wondered how my shorter training distances might translate to an actual marathon length race!

[lilfrost]

Very cool! Should add a mode to tell me people if they _can_ run it.

[tmulc]

Good idea! Was thinking of adding two versions with different shareable screen shots: 1. Share what was 2. Share what could've been.

[mistercat]

is the time on a flat course?

[tmulc]

Yes, a flat course on a cool day! There's a link to some details on the models here: https://getfast.ai/models