[gradstudent]

The analysis mentions the correlation with the played moves vs. engines is ~95% for both players. But I recall a credible-seeming youtube analysis from last year's Hans Niemann cheating scandal which said the best players only have a ~70-75% correlation on average.

https://youtu.be/jfPzUgzrOcQ?t=222

I'm trying to cohere these two "facts". Does anyone know if the 2024 championship games simply played out along very well established lines?

[chongli]

You can’t compare those because they’re two different events. The World Chess Championship is unique among chess events because of the very long time controls (120 minutes per side, additional 30 minutes after 40 moves, plus 30 seconds per move starting from move 41) and the huge amount of prep time the players get to face only one opponent.

The prep time means players can stay within the top engine line for many many moves because they’ve memorized it completely. The generous time controls means the players have a lot of time to calculate the best move once they’re out of the prepared line. Lastly, the large amount of time increment after 40 moves (30 minutes plus 30s per move) means the players should be able to solve for draws or mates in the endgame. This is part of the reason Ding’s decisive blunder was so shocking: he had plenty of time but moved too quickly, not realizing his bishop could be trapped in the corner and traded off into a losing pawn endgame after he offered the rook trade.

[maximamel]

I think those are two different definitions. In the video, the engine correlation represents the amount of moves that matched the top move of a chess engine, as defined here: https://en.chessbase.com/post/let-s-check-engine-correlation... The accuracy metric in the article is defined a bit differently according to how Lichess computes it: https://lichess.org/page/accuracy

[mellosouls]

The scandal was a big nothing in the end (Niemann didn't cheat at the time, though he had admitted to doing so as a younger player), and the video lacks credibility in that regard.

It's not clear where your 70-75% claim comes from, but you would expect a higher accuracy in classical vs speed games for instance.