[krethh]

Let's make two generous assumptions: 1. ARC-AGI actually generalizes to human intelligence 2. It took 172x more compute to go from ~75% to ~87%, so it will take roughly 4x that to get to 99% (the level of a STEM graduate), assuming every 172x'ing of the compute cuts the remaining gap in half

That is roughly 10^9 times more compute required, or roughly the US military budget per half an hour, to get the intelligence of 1 (!) STEM graduate (not any kind of superhuman intelligence).

Of course, algorithms will get better, but this particular approach feels like wading in a plateau of efficiency improvements, very, very far down the X axis.