[monkeynotes]

I was so stupid when GPT3 came out. I knew so little about token prediction, I argued with folks on here that it was capable of so many things that I now understand just aren't compatible with the tech.

Over the past couple of years of educating myself a bit, whilst I am no expert I have been anticipating a dead end. You can throw as much training at these things as you like, but all you'll get is more of the same with diminishing returns. Indeed in some research the quality of responses gets worse as you train it with more data.

I am yet to see anything transformative out of LLMs other than demos which have prompt engineers working night and day to do something impressive with. Those Sora videos took forever to put together, and cost huge amounts of compute. No one is going to make a whole production quality movie with an LLM and disrupt Hollywood.

I agree, an LLM is like an idiot savant, and whilst it's fantastic for everyone to have access to a savant, it doesn't change the world like the internet, or internal combustion engine did.

OpenAI is heading toward some difficult decisions, they either admit their consumer business model is dead and go into competing with Amazon for API business (good luck), become a research lab (give up on being a billion dollar company), or get acquired and move on.